Putin Is Waging War Against Russia Too

As a direct consequence of their country's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, over 300,000 Russians have been killed or wounded, and tens of millions more are economically worse off than they were on February 23, 2022. Although over 70% of Russian respondents continue to tell pollsters that they "personally support the actions of the Russian military in Ukraine," Kremlin-controlled propaganda has largely succeeded in preventing its audience from learning the truth about Russian forces butchering Ukrainian civilians in Bucha, or about the Russian military's use of Russian convicts as cannon fodder, or the ongoing Russian shelling of civilian neighborhoods in the Ukrainian-controlled city of Kherson.

There is every reason to believe that, if Russians were aware of why their armed forces were sent into Ukraine and what it has done in the nearly two years since openly attacking, they would be opposed. As late as December 2021, polling showed that only 8% of Russians supported "send[ing] Russian armed forces to participate in battles in Ukraine."

As a likely result of this fact, the Kremlin's domestic propaganda campaign in the weeks leading up to the invasion did not focus on concepts of patriotism, imperialism, or history, nor did it claim that Kyiv would fall "in three days." Instead, Russia's rulers prepared their population for war by claiming right up until the very end that there was no Russian invasion force positioned on Ukraine's borders and that war was anything but "imminent."

The lie worked. In September 2021, only 47% of Russians said that they "would like to see Vladimir Putin in the post of president after the end of his current term in 2024." Yet despite the sanctions, isolation, death, and destruction that Vladimir Putin has brought on his own country in the years since, in December 2023 an all-time high 78% of Russians answered that they hoped to see their president-for-life continue in office following the elections that are slated to be held this coming March.

Contrary to Kremlin officials' increasingly outlandish words, Putin and those around him do not act as if they are involved in an existential struggle against the "Collective West." Their invasion of Ukraine has left Russia's western border—the one with NATO–significantly less physically protected than it was. Instead, the Kremlin acts as if it understands that the real threat to the current regime's continuing rule is domestic. While its forward progress on the battlefield in Ukraine has stalled, its war against Russia itself has—thus far—proven to be a paradoxical success.

Russian forces launched a large-scale attack on Ukraine on Thursday using ballistic and cruise missiles, injuring at least 10 people in the capital Kyiv. The missile barrage came hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed to retaliate for the shelling of targets in Russia that followed a cross-border raid launched by the Freedom of Russia Legion, the Siberian Battalion and the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) into Russia's southern Belgorod and Kursk regions on March 12. Here's more on the attack and images of the aftermath.

By Brendan Cole

Russia will create two new armies before the end of the year, the country's defense minister Sergei Shoigu has announced, as fears grow that Moscow is planning for an eventual war with NATO.

On Wednesday Shoigu announced plans to boost Russia's conventional military capabilities, saying that it had formed an army corps and a motorized division.

In addition, he said that the Russian military plans to form two combined arms armies (CAA) and 14 divisions, as well as 16 brigades, by the end of 2024.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted that last year Russia had formed two new CAAs—the 25th and the 18th.

In January 2023 Shoigu announced that Moscow would also create three new motorized rifle divisions and two new air assault divisions, as well as reorganizing seven motorized rifle brigades into motorized rifle divisions.

The ISW said that Shoigu's announcement on Wednesday did not differentiate between air assault and motorized rifle divisions, which probably meant Moscow will stand up two new divisions this year, in addition to the 12 divisions announced in January 2023.

But in its assessment on Wednesday, the ISW said Russia currently lacks the manpower, infrastructure, and training capacity to create several entirely new divisions to army-level formations.

The plans are more likely to boost Russia's "military capabilities vis-a-vis NATO," the ISW added, "personnel changes within the Russian MOD may be further indicators of Russia's preparations for a conflict in the long term."

Newsweek has contacted the Russian defense ministry for comment.

The news comes amid concerns about Vladimir Putin's plans following his full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with President Joe Biden saying in December that Russia would look to attack a NATO country.

Polish President Andrzej Duda told CNBC on Wednesday that Putin is shifting Russia to a war economy with the aim of being able to attack the alliance as early as 2026 or 2027, citing unspecified German research.

In February, Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said intelligence signaled Russia may try to attack a NATO country within three to five years.

The ISW said that the timeline to create a significant Russian conventional military threat "depends heavily on the financial resources Putin is willing to put against military efforts."

Meanwhile, Andrii Yusov, Ukraine's military intelligence spokesman, said on Monday that Russia could "more openly" carry out mobilization now that the Kremlin-controlled election that returned Putin to power was over.

However, he said that a covert draft of Russia's military had been ongoing and had not stopped during the presidential campaign.