There Is No Clear Path to Ukrainian Victory—That's Why Ukraine Needs Aid

A spending bill that includes over $60 billion in aid for Ukraine's war effort remains stuck on Capitol Hill. In his explanation as to why Congress continues to delay voting on the measure, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) claimed, "We need a clear articulation of the strategy to allow Ukraine to win, and thus far, [the White House's] responses have been insufficient."

Whether Speaker Johnson understands it or not, he is demanding the impossible. One year ago today, there was a plausible strategy that might have allowed Ukraine to win its fight for national survival by the end of 2023. That strategy would have involved the timely provision of Western-made main battle tanks, armored vehicles, long-range strike weapons, aircraft, and artillery shells—along with the necessary logistical and maintenance support to keep the imported kit in the field. Instead, the Western aid that did find its way onto the frontlines in Ukraine arrived well after Russian forces had been granted ample time to reconstitute its beleaguered ground forces behind newly built defensive fortifications, and it arrived in insufficient quantities to allow Ukrainian troops to make more than marginal territorial progress.

As a result, both Ukraine and its Western partners will enter 2024 on the defensive. The cost of breaking the current battlefield stalemate—in terms of both dollar-denominated foreign aid and of Ukrainian lives—is now orders of magnitude higher than it likely would have been had the Biden Administration that Speaker Johnson is so eager to criticize taken decisive action sooner.

However, this does not mean that the Speaker is correct in his current criticisms. While it is true that no single spending bill can guarantee a Ukrainian victory anytime in the foreseeable future, a failure to pass the current measure would seriously test Ukrainians' ability to keep up their defensive efforts for long enough to survive as a country.

The Kremlin leadership shows no sign that it is prepared to accept a "negotiated settlement" to its war of choice—particularly not at a moment when the Western aid that has allowed Ukraine to fight so successfully for so long appears to be in danger of being sharply reduced. Under the current circumstances, there are only two plausible ways this war can end: in a Russian defeat, or in a Ukrainian defeat. Speaker Johnson's performance over the past two weeks has made the second outcome far more likely than it ought to have been.

The Russian government has brought in more than $2.5 billion from the African gold trade since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Putin's profit, according to the Blood Gold Report, released this month, is driven by the Wagner Group's influence in large parts of Africa, where the private military company (PMC) has established a foothold in recent years by offering security services and paramilitary assistance. Authors with the research program write that Wagner has "exclusive rights" to the largest goldmine in the Central African Republic (CAR), the Ndassima mine, "in return for propping up an authoritarian regime."

Russian forces in Ukraine have lost more than 1,300 soldiers and a dozen artillery systems in the past 24 hours, Kyiv has said, as the human cost of the grueling war rises.

Moscow has lost a total of 342,800 troops since it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022, according to the General Staff of Ukraine's military. Kyiv's destruction of 12 of Russia's artillery systems in the past day brings Moscow's total reported losses to 8,088 systems.

Russia could be paving the way for the construction of a new Black Sea naval base in a breakaway territory, new satellite imagery appears to show, in a move that could risk widening the Ukraine war as Moscow attempts to shield its naval assets from Kyiv's forces.

Satellite images captured in the past few years, including since invading Russian troops crossed over into Ukraine in February 2022, indicate construction work and dredging at the port of Ochamchire in Abkhazia, the BBC reported on Wednesday.

A U.S. government-funded media organization on Wednesday reported it had received video that allegedly shows Russian soldiers using captured members of Ukraine's military as shields.

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) obtained the video from Ukraine's armed forces, and it shared details of the footage in Radio Svoboda, its Russian news service. RFE/RL also reported that it had asked lawyers and members of the military to analyze the video, and the professionals stated they believe it provides evidence that Russia's army had committed a war crime against Ukrainian troops.

Russian army training will change to focus more on preparing troops for high-intensity combat operations in response to experiences faced in Ukraine, it has been reported.

Russia has suffered high casualties in its invasion, with a U.S. intelligence assessment suggesting this week that Moscow has lost 87 percent of the total number of active-duty ground troops it had prior to launching the invasion.

The British Ministry of Defense said that there has been a huge spike in Russian casualties linked to Moscow's offensive launched in October towards Avdiivka in the Donetsk oblast.

But the newspaper Izvestia, which is aligned with the Kremlin, said there would be a new approach to training Vladimir Putin's troops for the frontline, outlining what it described as updated techniques "to help soldiers survive in difficult situations."

The paper said that the training was aimed primarily at those who will have to participate in the "special military operation," using the official Kremlin term for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Colonel Alexander Perendzhiev, associate professor at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, told Izvestia that the draft document had been drawn up after interviews with soldiers, sergeants and junior officers who had "endured all the hardships of frontline service."

"We had to find out what qualities the fighters on the frontline lack in modern warfare conditions," he said. "We are confronting Ukrainian forces whom NATO stands behind. The enemy is a very serious one and to defeat it, you need to take into account many nuances."

"Physical training is the basis that allows soldiers and officers to effectively carry out their combat missions and survive in difficult conditions," he said.

The newspaper said that the draft training document, which will be approved by the end of the year, emphasizes "the combat component" of fighting, and that troops would need to undergo strength exercises "to develop tactical endurance."

Russian manuals on physical training have been updated from time to time, such as following the war in Georgia in 2008, and the new training will be in hand-to-hand combat, military-applied swimming, and cross-country skiing. One drill would require troops running more than three miles in full equipment.

Russian soldiers who meet the new fitness demands can also receive monthly bonuses of between 15 percent and 100 percent of their official salary.

As well as the high losses faced by Russian forces in Ukraine there are numerous reports of low morale, poor training and calls by relatives for mobilized troops to be allowed to return home. Newsweek has contacted the Russian defense ministry for comment.