The West Must Give Ukraine Tools to Win, Not Just for Russia to Lose

Last week, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Valerii Zaluzhnyi announced his assessment that his country's war with Russia had shifted to a positional phase in which neither side is likely to make territorial gains anytime in the foreseeable future. Without the appearance of "new and non-trivial approaches to break military parity with the enemy," Zaluzhnyi warned, Ukraine is likely to remain in a situation in which "offensive operations of both parties occur with significant difficulties and large losses of material and personnel."

Zaluzhnyi's analysis presents the definition of a stalemate, a struggle in which neither side is capable of massing the necessary personnel and equipment to push the other back in any significant way. However, this does not mean that the conflict is about to become 'frozen,' let alone to be resolved anytime soon. While Zaluzhnyi admits that "the prolongation of the war...is beneficial to...the russian federation"—a proper noun that the Ukrainian military chief declines to capitalize—there is every indication that the decision makers back in "russia" also understand this reality.

Under the circumstances, it appears highly unlikely that the Kremlin would accept any Ukrainian offer to end the fighting in its current place, even if the decision makers in Kyiv were actually interested in presenting such a proposal. Unlike in Moldova or Georgia, two countries where Russia's occupying troops elected to stop shooting after their opponents had established robust defensive positions on the opposite side of the lines, in Ukraine Moscow appears intent on continuing its open aggression—whether the Ukrainians continue fighting them or not.

A "frozen conflict" requires that both sides, recognizing that their struggle has been stalemated, agree to end things where they are, even if only temporarily. The above does not describe the war in Ukraine—either today or during the positional phase of the Donbas conflict that followed the signing of the Minsk II agreements in February 2015. As in that earlier armed struggle between Ukraine and Russia, the positional phase of the ongoing full-scale war is going to be costly for both sides. However, if the war is to end before Ukraine's Armed Forces find themselves too exhausted to keep up their defense, the provision of Western financial and military aid needs to be increased rather than pared back.

Until the Russian side decides that the continuation of the war is more costly to the Kremlin's interests than the cessation of hostilities would be, those hostilities will continue, and there is still no sign that Vladimir Putin and those around him have reached such a conclusion. At this phase, the only thing that might begin to persuade them to end their war for war's sake is a clear commitment from the West to finally provide Ukraine with all the tools it needs to win the war, rather than to simply not lose it too soon.

As the conflict in Ukraine continues President Volodymyr Zelensky has recently said, "I believe that now is not the right time for elections."

In a nightly video address on Monday, Zelensky said it was "utterly irresponsible to engage in topics related to an election in such a frivolous manner."

"Now everyone should think about defending our country. We need to pull ourselves together, avoid unwinding and splitting up into disputes or other priorities," he said. "If there is no victory, there will be no country. Our victory is possible."

White House national security spokesperson John Kirby on Wednesday told reporters that the United States has gone through 96 percent of its funds allocated for Ukraine.

"Of the total funds that have been provided to Ukraine since the beginning of the war, which is an excess of $60 billion—and that's not just security assistance; that's economic, financial and humanitarian assistance—we've gone through about 96 percent of what's left," Kirby said during a press conference.

Newsweek reached out to the White House via email for comment Wednesday night.

Video shared on social media purports to show the moment a Russian unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) strikes a Ukrainian military vehiclesupplied by the U.S., which remains intact after the resulting blast.

The clip posted on the Telegram channel of Voenniy Ocvedomitel (Military Informant) shows aerial footage of what is described as a Lancet drone hitting the vehicle and the explosive aftermath.

Russia has reportedly attempted to get back some of the weapons it has exported to countries such as Pakistan, Egypt, Belarus and Brazil, in order to boost its arsenal for the ongoing war with Ukraine.

In a report published on Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), citing three people with knowledge of the matter, said a delegation of Russian officials who visited Cairo in April 2022 asked Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to return more than 100 engines from Russian helicopters that are needed for the full-scale invasion.

By David Brennan

The Lebanese Hezbollah militia is reportedly in possession of Russian-made anti-ship missiles, after the group's leader Hassan Nasrallah threatened "something in store for the U.S. vessels" operating in the Middle East region.

Reuters reported on Wednesday—citing two anonymous Lebanese sources—that the Iranian-aligned militia group has added the P-800 Oniks, which in its export form is known as the Yakhont, to its formidable missile arsenal.

"There's the Yakhont, and of course there are other things besides it," one unnamed Lebanese source told Reuters. Another added: "We're obviously paying a lot of attention to that...and we're taking what capabilities they have seriously."

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the Reuters report "is news without any confirmation at all. We do not know if it is true or not." He added: "We do not have such information." Russia has previously sold the Yakhont to Syria, which has been known to supply Hezbollah with a range of weaponry.

Hezbollah has never admitted possession of the Yakhont, with Nasrallah and his senior officials closely guarding any detailed information about the group's missile arsenal. Hezbollah's capabilities are believed to have vastly expanded since its 2006 war against Israel. Newsweek has contacted a Hezbollah spokesperson via WhatsApp to request comment.

The Yakhont has a range of around 186 miles and can carry either a 440-pound high explosive or 550-pound semi-armor piercing warhead. Nearly 30 feet long, the missile flies at speeds of up to around 1,900 miles per hour, making it supersonic.

The weapon has been used by Russian forces during Moscow's intervention in the Syrian civil war, and in its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Last month, Lebanese political analyst Nasser Qandil—considered to be close to Hezbollah—said on his YouTube channel that the Yakhont is "the most important prize" from the group's involvement in Syria, where it proved influential in propping up President Bashar al-Assad's beleaguered dictatorship alongside Russia and Iran.

"Hezbollah is prepared and ready," Qandil said, as quoted by Reuters, and noting that the Yakhont can be used against American ships operating in the area. The U.S. has deployed two aircraft carrier groups and a nuclear-powered cruise missile submarine to the Middle East region in recent weeks, amid Israel's showdown with Hamas in the Gaza Strip and ongoing skirmishes with Hezbollah.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies' Missile Threat database reported that the U.S. has suggested Hezbollah acquired 12 Yakhont systems from Syria at some time before January 2016. However, it added that Hezbollah is not believed to be able to fire the missiles without Iranian and/or Syrian support.

"Israel considers the Yakhont one of the main threats it faces from Hezbollah, as the missile threatens shipping along Israel's entire coastline and could complicate any potential blockade of Lebanon," the Missile Threat site said.

Newsweek has contacted the Israel Defense Forces and the Pentagon by email to request comment.