Ever since Israel began its military response in Gaza to the horrific Hamas terrorist massacre and kidnappings of people in Israel, many in the international community have cautioned other forces in the region to stay out of the fight. President Joe Biden said on Oct. 18, "My message to any state or any other hostile actor thinking about attacking Israel remains the same as it was a week ago, don't–don't–don't."
A major concern is Hezbollah in Lebanon, which is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and other countries such as the United Kingdom, Germany, and Israel, as well as the Arab League. As Newsweek reported, Hezbollah has exchanged daily fire with Israel across the border on Israel's north, but Lebanese leaders "say they do not want to be drawn into war."
Much of the focus on Hezbollah discusses its vast, sophisticated rocket arsenal, thousands of highly trained militants, and seemingly endless financial sponsorship from Iran. As Daniel S. Mariaschin and David J. Michaels wrote in a column for Newsweek, "The offensive capabilities of Hezbollah are sobering."
Hezbollah's involvement could severely widen the war into a regional conflict. But its effect could be even broader, endangering people all over the world—especially Jews and Americans.
Like Hamas, Hezbollah is a proxy for Iran. But unlike Hamas, Hezbollah has a global footprint. Created over 40 years ago, Hezbollah has dutifully served as Iran's leading clandestine weapon to carry out terror attacks against Tehran's adversaries. While it has also evolved into a Lebanese political party and effectively functions as a shadow government in the south, it also retains its terrorist apparatus, the Islamic Jihad Organization (IJO). The IJO reports directly to Hezbollah's Secretary General Hasan Nasrallah, and is solely charged with maintaining global contingency terrorist plans and plots at the behest of Tehran. (The European Union lists this wing as a terrorist organization.)
Its long list of terrorist attacks includes the hijacking of TWA flight 847 in 1985, the Israeli Embassy bombing in London in 1994, the Khobar Towers attack in Saudi Arabia in 1996, and the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center that killed 85 people in Buenos Aires. In a statement remembering the victims last year, the U.S. Embassy in Israel said the bombing underscored Hezbollah's "global ambitions and is a clear example of Iran's support of international terrorism."
The last successful terrorist attack attributed to Hezbollah was a 2012 bus bombing in Bulgaria that killed five Jewish Israeli tourists and their Muslim bus driver, and wounded many others including 45 Israeli youth. Over the past decade, the IJO has remained very active, with several plots foiled by domestic intelligence and law enforcement agencies. Operatives were arrested in Peru, Thailand, and Cyprus procuring and storing tons of ammonium nitrate and other bomb making materials. In 2019, a U.S. citizen and New York resident was sentenced to 40 years in federal prison for serving as a spy for Hezbollah within the United States.
We believe sleeper agents for the terror group likely remain embedded in nations across the world. They could launch attacks at any time if given orders to do so.
In response to the Israel-Hamas war and U.S. support for Israel, we've already seen Tehran leveraging other proxies, mostly trained by Hezbollah. Iraqi Shiite militants have attacked U.S. bases, as have Syrian forces. The Yemeni Houthis recently launched missiles toward Israel, which were intercepted by U.S. naval carriers. These are all pain points that Tehran wants to inflict to deter the United States from entering into the war further, and to push the United States to pressure Israel to cease its operations in Gaza.
Hezbollah may prefer to leverage the IJO's capabilities to hurt Israel and the United States without dragging Lebanon into a greater war at this time. Having lived through years of civil war and currently experiencing one of the worst economic crises, the Lebanese population is not looking to enter another conflict. The 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah left an estimated 120 Israeli soldiers and more than 1,000 Hezbollah fighters dead.
Hezbollah also knows it would face a strong fight from the Israeli military, bolstered by support from the United States and other allies. The U.S. Navy sent its most advanced aircraft carrier and other forces to the region, underscoring "the United States' ironclad support for the Israel Defense Forces and the Israeli people," U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said. A spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) called it a message "to all of the other terrorist organizations in the region—and their puppeteers in Tehran, their Iranian masters—if you think that this is a good time to join in the fight and attack Israel from other fronts, think again."
No matter what, intelligence operations in Israel, the United States, and around the world need to be on high alert for any potential Hezbollah activity, particularly at Jewish sites and places in which Israel supporters congregate. The risk is real—and attacks could be triggered at any time.
Marisa Tugultschinow and David Dezso are with the Banyan Risk Group. Tugultschinow spent 15 years in the intelligence community and Defense Department, specializing in countering-terrorism and the Middle East. Dezso served 10 years in U.S. Army Special Operations as a Green Beret with extensive experience in international affairs.
The views expressed in this article are the writers' own.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
