As Israel and Hamas Fight, U.S. Bases in Iraq and Syria Continue To Be Liabilities | Opinion

As the war between Israel and Hamas rages and hundreds of thousands of Israeli troops wait for the ground stage of the campaign, U.S. officials are doing everything they can to ensure the fighting doesn't spread outside of the Gaza Strip. It's a tall order, made even taller by a bulky U.S. presence in the region that has grown bulkier with the deployment of two carrier strike groups, A-10 attack planes, and more troops with standby orders.

The first three weeks of the conflict have devastated communities on both sides of the Israel-Gaza border. In Israel, families continue to grieve after the worst terrorist attack in the nation's history killed more than 1,400 people. Palestinian civilians in Gaza are caught between a heavy Israeli air campaign, Hamas obstructionism, and limited escape options. More than 6,500 Palestinians have been killed so far, with more than 700 killed in one day alone. Doctors in the enclave have been forced to treat patients on the floor. The U.N. warns that fuel will soon run out, which will impact everything from hospital operations to water taps. The Biden administration understands Gaza is in an extreme humanitarian emergency yet is also cognizant that Israel has a legitimate right to defend itself and eradicate a terrorist group, Hamas, that wants Israel destroyed.

The last thing President Joe Biden wants is for the violence to snowball into a regional conflict. The U.S. has combined deterrence with dialogue to dissuade other actors in the region, like Iran and its proxy network, to think twice about joining the war. The displays of U.S. military force in the Eastern Mediterranean have been followed by backchannel messages to the Iranians: The U.S. has no intention of escalating and would like Iran to stay out of the fray. The U.S. had a similar message to Hezbollah, Iran's most capable proxy force in the region, utilizing contacts in the Lebanese government to get the point across. Biden also used a television interview with 60 Minutes to spell it out for them: "Don't. Don't, don't, don't."

This is easier said than done. Israeli troops and Hezbollah fighters have been clashing for weeks along the Israel-Lebanon border, and while the strikes have been nothing like the month-long war in 2006 that flattened southern Beirut, there have still been fatalities on both sides. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin recognize that further escalation is a very real possibility. "We don't want to see a second or third front develop," Blinken said on Oct. 22. "We don't want to see our forces or our personnel come under fire. But if that happens, we're ready for it."

U.S. military personnel have already come under fire. Whether or not Iran is ordering their Shiite militia factions in Iraq and Syria to attack U.S. bases, we don't know (the Pentagon's spokesperson said the U.S. holds Iran responsible for the strikes). But the attacks are happening regardless. U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria have been attacked at least 13 times since Oct.17. In one incident, 20 U.S. troops suffered minor injuries after multiple attack drones targeted their base at al-Tanf, located in southern Syria next to the Iraqi border. On the same day, drones hit the Ain al-Asad airbase in western Iraq on two separate occasions, destroying a hangar in the process.

This is hardly the first drone or rocket strike on U.S. positions and it won't be the last. In February 2021, during his first month on the job, Biden authorized airstrikes against Iranian-backed groups in Syria in response to a rocket crashing into a northern Iraqi base that hosted U.S. forces. In June 2021, he ordered more airstrikes in the Iraq-Syria border region. A little more than a year later, in August 2022, eight U.S. fighter jets struck a weapons depot in Syria's Deir ez-Zor province in retaliation for a drone and rocket assault against U.S. bases in Syria. And this March, Biden green-lit more strikes, this time after a U.S. contractor was killed and six other Americans were wounded after a drone slammed into a U.S. base in Hasakah, Syria.

One can choose to focus on the attacks themselves, but this doesn't provide the full context of what's happening. The question of why U.S. forces are in Iraq and Syria to begin with must also be part of the conversation. U.S. defense officials continue to argue that a force presence is necessary to eliminate the Islamic State, particularly in Syria, where Washington doesn't have the luxury of partnering with the host government.

Yet it's worth remembering that the original U.S. objective in both countries, the elimination of ISIS' territorial caliphate, has already been accomplished ISIS hasn't governed territory in Iraq since December 2017; in Syria, since March 2019. While the group still boasts 5,000-7,000 fighters in Iraq and Syria, the ability of those fighters to plan and orchestrate the kinds of large-scale operations prevalent during their heyday is markedly diminished. There are more ISIS fighters in custody (10,000 are locked up in the various prisons operated by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces) than in the field. If the objective is now to kill off ISIS as an organization, then U.S. military operations will probably never end.

U.S. policymakers have grown comfortable viewing overseas bases as strategic assets and guarantors of stability. But they can just as easily be strategic vulnerabilities, especially in regions prone to explosive violence. U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria are in the vulnerability category, giving Washington little leverage but handing Tehran a reliable, low cost way to increase the pressure against the U.S. at a time and place of its choosing.

President Biden should think about this the next time U.S. personnel come under fire. He probably won't have to wait very long.

Daniel R. DePetris is a fellow at Defense Priorities and a syndicated foreign affairs columnist at the Chicago Tribune.

The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.