Why Is Vladimir Putin Stalling?

Vladimir Putin is reportedly under increasing pressure to take a more aggressive approach to his war against Ukraine and introduce a full-scale mobilization, but the Russian president is stalling over concerns doing so would break from the propaganda narrative he's been pushing for more than 18 months, experts tell Newsweek.

Martial law should be imposed in Russia and Putin should announce a second wave of mobilization to draft hundreds of thousands more troops to fight in Ukraine, hard-line members of Russia's security sector are telling the Russian leader, Bloomberg reported on Sunday, citing five people with knowledge of the situation.

Putin announced a "partial mobilization" of the population in the fall of 2022. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on September 21 last year that Russia would be targeting 300,000 reservists and ex-military personnel with "certain military specialties and relevant experience." However, the figure in Putin's decree has not been disclosed to the public.

The Kremlin has repeatedly brushed off reports of a covert mobillzation or that a second wave of mobilization could take place. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov previously claimed a second mobilization wave in Russia would kick off in January 2023.

"There is no such need today," Putin told a group of Russian war correspondents and military bloggers during a televised meeting in June when questioned on whether he will announce another mobilization.

He said, however, that "some public figures say we need to get 1 million or 2 million," adding: "It depends on what we want."

Newsweek has contacted Russia's Foreign Ministry for comment via email.

Konstantin Sonin, a Russian-born political economist from the University of Chicago, said Putin is likely holding off against declaring a mass mobilization because he realizes that the war is "deeply unpopular among the vast majority of the Russian population."

"There are a couple of million who are very happy that there is a war against Ukraine, there are a couple of million who are opposing the war, and there are tens of millions who are not supportive and who are not protesting," Sonin told Newsweek, noting, however, that "volunteer" recruitment is in full swing in Russia, with exceptionally high salaries being offered compared with the national average.

All Russian combatants fighting in Ukraine are entitled to a lump sum from the Ministry of Defense of 195,000 rubles ($2,080) upon signing a contract of at least one year. Monthly salaries vary depending on military rank, position and length of service, but are no less than 204,000 rubles ($2,176). Combatants also receive regional payments from authorities, which vary nationwide, according to analysis by "Not Moscow Speaks," which was created by a group of independent Russian journalists.

Putin's Propaganda Narrative

Another factor that is deterring Putin from an open mass mobilization is that the propaganda narrative that he and his entourage push is that Russia is not waging a war, but is conducting a limited-scale military operation, said Sonin.

"This is what he is fed in the army and police reports, and this is the language that he speaks to his subordinates and the general public. Announcing a mobilization in the open will be a drastic departure from this worldview, almost like bursting from an informational bubble," Sonin continued, explaining that even if Putin does attempt to draft more men for the war, it will be accompanied by rhetoric claiming nothing new is happening.

Neil Melvin, director of International Security Studies at British defense and security think tank the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), agreed, telling Newsweek that Putin's propaganda message has meant that he "continues to walk a tightrope over the issue of mobilization."

Melvin said that so far, Putin has been able to conduct the war without having to conscript significant numbers of young men from the large urban areas of Russia, with the main brunt of the fighting conducted by troops drawn from minorities, and from rural areas and smaller towns.

Many who were drafted in Putin's partial mobilization were from Russia's ethnic minority republics, with activists and local officials saying these populations were disproportionately targeted. Even before the announcement of partial mobilization, these regions had experienced the largest number of deaths and casualties from the war in Ukraine.

"Putin has been anxious not to start conscripting in large numbers the children of his key domestic constituencies of support, especially as Russia heads into an election year in 2024," said Melvin.

He said that while Putin's control rests increasingly on coercion and control of the national media, he also seeks to maintain a social contract with the Russian population that largely keeps the consequences of the Ukraine war away from everyday life in Russia.

"Mass mobilization, which is becoming increasingly urgent given the attrition of Russian forces in Ukraine, would break this contract and bring home to families all across Russia the costs of the war," he added.

Can Russia's Economy Withstand a Second Mobilization?

The Russian ruble has slumped amid sanctions imposed by the European Union, the United States and other Western allies in response to Putin's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Russia was kicked out of the SWIFT global banking system, while Western nations blocked Russia's access to some of its foreign reserves. Europe also froze purchases of Russian oil and gas, and in December 2022, the G7 agreed on a price cap on Russian crude and refined petroleum products, putting further strains on the ruble.

Nick Trickett, an expert on the Russian economy and commodities markets, told Newsweek that the more Putin's regime uses higher spending levels to sustain the war, the harder it is to manage the ruble exchange rate.

"If you mobilize the economy for war by boosting defense spending, you boost demand for imports and labor. The majority of the value of most consumer goods is still imported. The more you import, especially with reduced revenues from energy exports, the weaker the ruble becomes," explained Trickett, author of upcoming book Empire of Austerity: Russia and the Breaking of Eurasia, whose research has included mobilization in Russia.

"The weaker the ruble becomes, the higher inflation goes. The higher inflation goes, the more you need to hike interest rates to kill inflation, crushing construction and consumer spending and sending the economy into a deeper recession," he said.

Trickett said further mobilization is possible, but would come at a steep economic and political cost "hidden by a few too many people taking Russian GDP data at face value."

Sonin said he believes that the Russian economy will not lose much in nominal GDP numbers, "because by now it is driven mostly by the inflated contribution of increased military production, and will keep plunging in terms of quality of living."

"Mobilizing 500,000 people would not finish off the Russian economy, even 5 million would not finish it off, but there is nothing good about it economically," he said.

Support for War Waning

An opinion poll of 1,604 people nationwide conducted in June by Russian Field—a nonpartisan Moscow-based research company—found that Russian public support for Putin's war in Ukraine has dropped significantly.

It found just 45 percent of respondents were in favor of continuing the Kremlin's "special military operation." That's down 9 percentage points from a survey the company conducted in April 2022, just weeks after the war started.

While the Russian public remains split on continuing the war, mass mobilization would boost pacifist sentiment, the latest poll showed.

More than half of respondents (54 percent) would prefer Russia to engage in peace negotiations if a second wave of mobilization is required to continue the "military operation."

Meanwhile, more than one-third (35 percent) are in favor of continuing hostilities if Putin were to announce a fresh wave of conscripted men to fight in Ukraine.

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