War Map Shows Ukraine's Next 'Target' after Crossing Dnieper in Kherson

Ukraine is threatening to break open a key but largely dormant front in the occupied south of the country, with recent small-scale crossings of the Dnieper River crystalizing into a significant offensive operation within 50 miles of the entrance to Crimea.

The Kherson front has been relatively quiet since the city's liberation in November 2022, with the broad and fast-flowing Dnieper—known as the Dnipro in Ukrainian—forming a natural barrier between the Ukrainian forces on its west bank and the Russians occupying the east.

While mechanized columns have been clashing in Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk to the east, forces along the lower reaches of the Dnieper have been playing a cross-river cat-and-mouse game.

Ukraine has the upper hand, having successfully carved out small areas of control in the settlements of Krynky, Pishchanivka and Poyma—all on the east bank of the Dnieper—despite repeated Russian counterattacks. Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry by email to request comment.

On Monday evening, the Institute for the Study of War said Kyiv's forces are continuing their operations, and cited Russian milblogger reports that Ukrainian units have "expanded their zone of control in the western part of Krynky," some 18 miles northeast of Kherson City and 1 mile from the Dnieper, "and that fighting is ongoing near the settlement."

ISW cited geolocated footage of Russian TOS-1A thermobaric artillery strikes on Ukrainian troops in the Krynky area, also noting Russian milblogger reports of fresh Ukrainian attacks towards Poyma—around 7 miles east of Kherson City and 2 miles from the Dnieper—and Pishchanivka, some 8 miles east of Kherson City and 2 miles from the river.

The War Gonzo Telegram channel—which is run by Semyon Pegov and is one of the most popular milbloggers with more than 1 million subscribers—published battlefield maps on Tuesday showing recent Ukrainian gains and predicting Kyiv's prime objective.

"The goal is to reach the M-14 highway," Pegov wrote, referring to the road that connects all major cities in southern Ukraine, from Odesa in the west to Mariupol in the east. The road runs through Kherson and on to occupied Melitopol, before following the Sea of Azov coastline to the Russian border. Ukrainian forces in Krynky and Poyma are less than 3 miles from the highway.

The road appears as a spine to the so-called "land bridge" of occupied Ukrainian territory connecting Crimea to Russia. The land bridge stands as perhaps the most salient Russian success of 20 months of full-scale war. Kyiv's forces have been trying to penetrate into the corridor via the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk fronts, but so far have been hindered by heavy Russian defenses.

Intensifying action along the Dnieper could pose a new threat. "If success is achieved, the [Russian] Armed Forces will have serious problems," Pegov wrote.

Ivan Stupak—a former officer in the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and now an adviser to the Ukrainian parliament's national security, defense and intelligence committee—told Newsweek that Kyiv's forces have been trying to force their way onto the east bank for at least four months.

"Previous operations failed; we've lost a lot of soldiers, a lot of good soldiers, experienced soldiers," Stupak said.

Now, Ukraine appears to have a foothold it can exploit. "I'm very sure that this operation could potentially be successful," Stupak added, noting there are thought to be around 300 Ukrainian troops operating on the east bank, most of them highly trained marines.

"At least a couple of pieces of heavy equipment have also been transferred to the left bank," he said, including German-made mobile bridges to facilitate waterway crossings.

Stupak said the M-14 highway is a "good objective," though suggested that Ukrainian forces in the region might have the ultimate goal of pushing through occupied Kherson Oblast all the way to the Black Sea port of Skadovsk, cutting off Russian forces defending the Kinburn Spit.

Such an advance would put Crimea under "fire control" of Kyiv's U.S.-made HIMARS, Stupak added.