New projections suggest a cooling trend on the horizon for several hot U.S. housing markets.
After a multi-year surge in home values, certain American cities are poised to see a reversal, with price declines anticipated for 2024. CoreLogic's U.S. Home Price Insights report for 2024 zeroes in on five metropolitan areas bracing for the highest risk of housing price drops. The report comes amid a national backdrop of home prices inching up 4.7 percent year-over-year as of October, with a modest month-over-month growth maintaining the upward momentum.
However, CoreLogic forecasts a stagnant growth rate for next year, marking a potential retreat from recent spikes in home valuation.
Leading the pack in potential price dips is Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Florida, where CoreLogic says there's over a 70 percent likelihood of home value decreases in the coming year.
CoreLogic's "very high" risk category also includes the Youngstown-Warren-Boardman area which covers Ohio and Pennsylvania; the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell area in Georgia; and several locales in Florida including West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Delray Beach, and Deltona-Daytona-Beach-Ormond Beach—all of which are metropolitan areas that previously thrived during the pandemic's real estate boom.
While the analytics company told Newsweek that it does not "project actual price decline, only the probability of decline," CoreLogic's assessment remains a barometer for potential market adjustments in the year ahead.
Over the course of this year, CoreLogic said homes in northeastern states like Connecticut, New Jersey, and Rhode Island saw the highest year-over-year appreciation, gaining 9.7 percent to 10.3 percent; however, those gains weren't uniformly felt across the country. States like Idaho, Montana, Texas, and Utah have already seen price declines, CoreLogic found, suggesting that the wave of growth in home values during the pandemic is beginning to recede.
A separate report issued by Realtor.com earlier this month dovetails that data, as the real estate listings website forecasts home price declines in as many as 20 U.S. cities.
Austin, Texas, tops Realtor's list with a projected 12.2 percent dip over the course of 2024, while St. Louis and Washington are not far behind with expected falls of 11.7 percent and 10.2 percent, respectively. The Realtor forecast attributed the expected downturn to heightened mortgage rates that have dampened buyer enthusiasm, an evolving economic climate, and a shift in buyer behavior.
More broadly, Realtor projects a modest decrease in U.S. median home prices, with a 1.7 percent reduction in existing home median price appreciation, which contrasts with the 10.3 percent growth seen in 2022 and would bring the median home price down from its current level of $431,000.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Aj Fabino is a Newsweek reporter based in Chicago. His focus is reporting on Economy & Finance. Aj joined Newsweek ... Read more
