US Not Ready for China War This Decade, Says Retired Navy Admiral

The U.S. is ill-prepared to face off against China in a Taiwan Strait conflict this decade and must take immediate steps to make up for lost time, former Indo-Pacific Command chief Admiral Harry Harris said Monday.

He delivered the assessment at a talk hosted by the American Enterprise Institute think tank, joined by former Admiral Philip Davidson, who succeeded Harris and led the Indo-Pacific Command until 2021.

The discussion had turned to the so-called "Davidson Window," the label given to the former commander's timeline when he was pressed in a 2021 Senate committee hearing to estimate how soon China might attempt to invade neighboring Taiwan. Davidson famously said Beijing could launch such an offensive within six years.

Stressing the "imminency" of the challenge posed by China's growing military capabilities and assertiveness in the Asia-Pacific region, Harris said Monday, "I'm concerned that we're building a modern navy and air force for the mid-2030s, 2040s, when the challenge ahead of us is in this decade, not the next decade."

Citing a serious mismatch between Washington's defense and economic policies, Harris warned the U.S. must end its dependency on China for strategically important supplies—such as rare earth metals for IT capabilities.

Policymakers need to acknowledge "we dug a hole, and we dove right into that hole," he said, adding that in addition to beefing up its own industrial base to meet the Chinese military threat, the U.S. must look to allies with well-developed naval shipyards like Japan and South Korea in the interim.

Davidson said that since he delivered the remarks two years ago, which galvanized Congress into action, the country has made a "reasonable" amount of progress on preparing itself for a potential Taiwan Strait conflict. However, more is needed in the form of "on-time defense budgets," resourcing, prioritization of threats, and consideration of allies and partners in the Asia-Pacific, he added.

Both admirals agreed that the U.S. should defend Taiwan should the need arise—even if it means doing so alone.

Newsweek has contacted Indo-Pacific Command via email for comment.

Taiwan is an "innovation nation, democracy, and force for good" that deserves defending, Harris said. He said he believes the self-ruled island has learned crucial lessons from Russia's invasion of Ukraine and is taking action to implement them, pointing to Taiwan's move last year to extend compulsory military conscription from four months to one year.

However, China's military brass has also taken notes from the war in Ukraine, and it remains set on chipping away at "military operating norms and international norms" until Taiwan is forced to meet its demands, Davidson cautioned.

China claims Taiwan as its historical territory and has repeatedly vowed to unify with it, by force if necessary. In recent years, China has sent an increasing number of warplanes on sorties near Taiwan.