Texas Gets Hurricane Warning Over Sea Level Rise

Hurricanes in Texas could become more intense as sea levels rise with climate change, a study has reported.

The study, conducted by Texas A&M University professor and state climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon, found that weather conditions in the state are getting increasingly dangerous. To reach the findings, Nielsen-Gammon analyzed data from 1900 to 2023 to estimate how weather patterns would change through to 2036.

He found that there could be a 10 percent increase in precipitation which will be seen mostly in the eastern regions and urban centers. Some parts of the state have already seen a 15 percent increase in precipitation over the last 100 years due to climate change, the study notes.

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Rising sea levels along the Gulf Coast will increase the danger from hurricanes as it increases the severity of storm surges, which can damage buildings and cause flooding.

"Historically, the most costly natural disasters in Texas have been droughts and hurricanes," Nielsen-Gammon said in a statement. "Hurricanes are sudden, catastrophic events, while droughts develop slowly but can affect all sectors of society. Both droughts and hurricanes are changing in complicated ways, but overall the risk from both are growing."

The study revealed that extreme weather as a whole is becoming more common. High temperatures and drought conditions are also causing ideal conditions for wildfires, meaning these are also increasing. The number of days with conditions perfect for fires to break out have also increased, particularly to the west of the state, the study reports.

As the report notes, the number of days with highly favorable conditions for fires to spread has already been increasing, most notably in West Texas.

"We have national climate assessments, but they can't do justice to Texas' specific climate conditions," Nielsen-Gammon said. "With this Texas-specific study, we focused on observed trends as much as possible rather than emphasizing climate model projections. The historic climate trends are part of our lived experience in Texas, and our report puts them in long-term context."

Climate change is causing an increase in extreme weather patterns all over the world. Texans have faced many challenges in recent years due to this, largely due to prolonged drought conditions which continue to threaten water supply and agriculture.

The past two years have seen two of the hottest summers on record in the state, according to Nielsen-Gammon, and the new study reports that this is only set to continue.

"That has altered the trend of 100-degree days, making the increase even more dramatic than it had been. We've also seen new research that indicates that surface water supplies might be becoming less reliable, with increasing evaporative losses coupled with increasingly erratic rainfall," he said.

By 2036, Texans could be seeing quadrable the number of days reaching 100 degrees than were seen in the 1970s and 1980s. In total, lost water due to evaporation could increase by 7 percent by 2036, the study reports.

The effects of increased drought and hot temperatures are already being seen in the state. In February this year, a huge wildfire broke out in the Texas Panhandle. The fire lasted for around three weeks and burned over 1 million acres.

Texas is not the only state suffering. California, and other states in the West, have suffered from prolonged drought conditions in recent years. In fact the entire region is on the brink of a water crisis, as years of dry conditions have meant water supply is not what it once was.

Although California and other parts of the West saw an increase in rainfall recently, climate change continues to make weather patterns unpredictable, meaning it is uncertain what the future will hold.

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