Russia and China are strengthening their military cooperation, including on Taiwan, U.S. intelligence officials warned during a congressional hearing on Thursday.
"Bottom line is that basically, if we were to have a conflict with one, the chances are we would have a second front," Lt Gen. Jeffrey Kruse, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said.
Moscow-Beijing ties have soared to new heights since the countries announced a "no limits" partnership shortly before Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Increased bilateral trade has helped buoy Russia's heavily sanctioned economy, while Russia has provided China with cheap oil and natural gas.
China maintains it is neutral regarding the Russia-Ukraine war but censors social media content critical of Moscow's war, which Beijing has neither condemned nor labeled an invasion.
"We see China and Russia, for the first time, exercising together in relation to Taiwan and recognizing that this is a place where China definitely wants Russia to be working with them, and we see no reason why they wouldn't," Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said on Thursday.
She was responding to a question from Sen. Mike Rounds (R-SD), who asked whether one of the countries would assist the other in a conflict with the U.S. and its allies.
Asked whether the Pentagon was taking its knowledge of enhanced Beijing-Moscow collaboration in its planning, Kruse said: "From the Department of Defense perspective, that would certainly be the case, and it just has to be taken into account whether or not we actually believe there would be two full-up fronts. That is analysis and assessments that will mature over time."
China claims democratic Taiwan as its territory, though the ruling Chinese Communist Party in Beijing has never ruled there, and vows to someday bring it into the fold—through force if necessary.
Though Washington switched official relations from Taipei to Beijing in 1979, the U.S. maintains friendly ties with Taiwan and is the self-ruled island's greatest weapons supplier.
For decades, U.S. administrations have maintained a careful policy of "strategic ambiguity" to keep China guessing whether the U.S. would commit troops to Taiwan's defense in the event of an assault.
Russia and China have conducted several five military drills since 2022, including last year in the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea.
In March, Chinese and Russian warships joined Iran in a series of exercises in the Gulf of Oman, with China's defense ministry saying the drills were to meant to "jointly maintaining regional maritime security."
While China denies it has provided Russia with lethal weaponry, Chinese companies are the source of drones and most drone-related components being used by invading Russian forces, Ukrainian researchers have said.
Washington has sanctioned a number of the Chinese firms allegedly involved in such activities. In recent months, the Biden administration has also introduced sanctions targeting firms and financial institutions involved in transactions with Russia across a range of industries.
Last month, the U.S. accused Beijing of providing the Kremlin with satellite imagery to assist its forces in Ukraine, and Chinese forces.
China's foreign ministry and Taiwan's de facto embassy in the U.S. did not immediately respond to written requests for comment.
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Micah McCartney is a reporter for Newsweek based in Taipei, Taiwan. He covers U.S.-China relations, East Asian and Southeast Asian ... Read more
