Think of it as the air war and the ground war, Eli Pariser explains. He's the executive director of MoveOn.org, the progressive Internet assemblage of 3.2 million members mobilizing its forces to put a Democrat in the White House. Tall with dark hair and a shy smile, Pariser is a self-described "geek--a Web and IT guy." A Web site he created in 2001 called 911Peace (advocating a multilateral foreign policy) attracted a half million visitors. He remembers being in his pajamas in his apartment in Boston trying to figure out what to do with the tens of thousands of e-mails pouring in. He was 20 years old.
That's when the founders of MoveOn, Wes and Joan Boyd, discovered him, and he's been with them for seven years through two election cycles. One was a bust, re-electing George W. Bush; the other brought a Democratic sweep of Congress. Now he's got a budget of $10 million to get out the vote, double what MoveOn spent in '04, bolstered by new technology to target wavering voters and link them with persuaders in the MoveOn network. Now marking its 10th anniversary, MoveOn has 3.2 million members raising money by the fistfuls over the Internet and ready to do what it takes to elect a Democrat.
MoveOn endorsed Barack Obama five days before Super Tuesday. It didn't put him over the top, and optimistic projections about Obama carrying California didn't materialize (he lost the state by 10 points). Still, the endorsement signaled that progressives would coalesce around Obama's candidacy. With millions to spend backed up by an army of virtual volunteers along with a promised 150,000 "boots on the ground," MoveOn is a major force for Democrats, hoping to be the modern equivalent of Big Labor in its heyday. This week, Pariser fired a warning shot in the looming battle over the superdelegates who may settle the nomination should neither candidate achieve the threshold number of delegates needed to declare victory. Speaking for MoveOn, he essentially told these party insiders to stand aside. "We're seeing unprecedented enthusiasm and turnout in this race, and we'll need all of that to win in November. The worst thing for the party and democracy is if all these new voters feel like the nomination was brokered in a backroom somewhere. The superdelegates have got to let the voters decide."
The nomination is slipping away from Hillary Clinton. She's got to rack up huge margins in Texas and Ohio on March 4 and in Pennsylvania on April 22, where polls now show her with double-digit leads. But even if she wins by 2 to 1, she's likely to lag behind Obama in earned delegates and would have to rely on the superdelegates to put her over the top. The maneuver would reek of entrenched privilege and destroy the fragile new coalition of young people and minorities Obama has brought to the party. "It's scary to think about some of these eventualities," says Pariser. While it's not unprecedented for party insiders to step in--Walter Mondale in 1984 needed superdelegates to secure the nomination--the dynamics this time are very different. Mondale was substantially ahead of challenger Gary Hart in earned delegates, so it seemed fair to crown him the winner.
If Obama is ahead but perhaps not by enough to overcome Hillary's edge with the superdelegates, which way would the supers swing? One early indication from Rep. John Lewis is that some Clinton supporters are wavering, given Obama's strong showing in the primaries. Like all Democratic members of Congress, Lewis is a superdelegate--and a particularly prized one given his legendary participation along with Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. in the civil-rights movement. Lewis told The New York Times that he's been impressed by Obama's campaign and would vote for him at the convention despite having endorsed Clinton. Superdelegates are not bound to any candidate, and Lewis is free to vote his conscience. The question is whether he represents the beginning of a wave breaking for Obama.
If Obama fails to get the nomination, Pariser told NEWSWEEK, "Hillary too would be a great president, and our people will be right behind her. The question is: how do we win?" If Hillary is seen as having seized the nomination in an illegitimate way, the challenge in November will be greater. Turning out the young vote is a priority. The "millennial generation," ages 18 to 30, will be a quarter of the electorate. "They've lived through the Bush presidency and they know politics is important in a way that wasn't as clear when I was in college," says Pariser, who is 27. MoveOn has hired the managing editor of the satirical newspaper The Onion to reach these voters where they are, which is online. Pariser wants to use technology to change the way politics works so that whichever Democrat whichever Democrat gets the best shot at walking into the Oval Office in January will go in with a strong hand and a people-powered victory.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
