Russia is likely aiming for victory in Ukraine by 2026, and will attempt to do so by implementing a three-step process that will eventually force the country to cede its territory under Russian control, according to the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).
The London-based think tank said in a report released on Tuesday that Russia now believes it is winning the war that began when Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of the country in February 2022. Surrender terms for Ukraine are currently being proposed by Russian intermediaries, it said.
RUSI said the process by which Moscow aims to succeed in Ukraine will likely be in three stages.
"The first requires the continuation of pressure along the length of the Ukrainian front to drain the Armed Forces of Ukraine's [AFU] munitions and reserves of personnel," it said, adding that alongside this, the Russian Special Services are being tasked with breaking the resolve of Kyiv's allies to continue sending military aid and assistance.
"Once military aid has been significantly limited such that Ukrainian munition stocks become depleted, Russia intends to initiate further offensive operations to make significant–if slow–gains on the battlefield," RUSI said of the second stage.
The think tank said Moscow will likely use these battlefield advances as "leverage" against Kyiv to "force capitulation on Russian terms" in the third stage.
"The planning horizon for the implementation of these objectives, which is providing the baseline for Russian force generation and industrial outputs, is that victory should be achieved by 2026," according to RUSI.
The prospect of peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow have been raised multiple times since Putin launched the full-scale invasion. The Russian president indicated a peace deal was still possible when he was interviewed by former Fox News host Tucker Carlson in a wide-ranging interview that aired on February 8.
The Kremlin has specified a few conditions that are non-negotiable for Russia, including that Ukraine must accept the September 2022 annexation of four of its regions—Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia—following referendums called by Putin that were deemed illegal by the international community.
The Kremlin has said there can be no peace deal "that does not take into account today's realities regarding Russian territory, with the entry of four regions into Russia."
Meanwhile, Ukraine has said that any peace deal must invalidate the September 2022 annexations of its territory, and that the Crimean Peninsula, which Putin annexed in 2014, must once again be considered part of Ukraine.
Newsweek has contacted the foreign ministries of Ukraine and Russia for comment by email.
"It is vital to appreciate that Russian goals may expand with success, and given that the Kremlin has violated almost all significant agreements both with Ukraine and NATO, there is no assurance that even if Russia got what it wanted out of negotiations it would not subsequently endeavour to physically occupy the rest of Ukraine or be emboldened to use force elsewhere," RUSI concluded.
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About the writer
Isabel van Brugen is a Newsweek Reporter based in Kuala Lumpur. Her focus is reporting on the Russia-Ukraine war. Isabel ... Read more
