Russia's Black Sea Fleet Problems Are Getting Worse

Russia's Black Sea Fleet is near-perpetually under fire in Moscow's grinding war against an enemy that has no significant conventional naval assets.

The story of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has been one of repeated failure for the numerically superior aggressor, one armed with fearsome home-grown technology touted as world-leading and yet unable to subdue a smaller but nimbler foe.

Nowhere is this truer than in the Black Sea, a key theater of the Kremlin's war, where Kyiv continues to strike costly blows.

This weekend, the Zaliv shipyard in the Russian-occupied Crimean city of Kerch provided the stage for the Black Sea Fleet's latest humiliation. The Russian Defense Ministry said that Ukraine fired 15 cruise missiles at the facility, 13 of which were intercepted. The remaining two munitions, it said, damaged a vessel. Newsweek has yet to verify this claim. The ministry did not specify which vessel nor the extent of the damage. Newsweek has contacted the ministry by email to request further comment.

Ukrainian air force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk was more forthcoming, writing on Telegram that Kyiv's missiles hit "one of the most modern ships of the Russian navy," a vessel capable of carrying Moscow's long-range Kalibr cruise missiles that have been terrorizing Ukrainian cities for the last 18 months.

Oleshchuk did not specifically say which ship was hit, but, on Monday, Ukraine's Office of Strategic Communications reported that the new Askold corvette was the target. The vessel, it said in a post on social media, "suffered significant damage and may not be repaired."

The Askold is a small missile carrier armed with up to eight Kalibr cruise missiles, which have a range of more than 1,500 miles. The vessel was reportedly still undergoing testing in the Black Sea and had been slated to join the Black Sea Fleet later this year.

Andriy Ryzhenko is a retired Ukrainian naval captain and now a strategic expert at the defense and logistics consultant company Sonata. He was among those to first suggest that the Askold was the vessel targeted.

Ryzhenko told Newsweek that the Askold represents a comparatively new project of Russia, which was badly damaged in the Ukrainian strike. "Probably she will not be commissioned to the Black Sea Fleet as planned in December of this year, and it will take a few months or maybe even years to fix it, if that is even possible," he said.

"It's possible to see from satellite pictures that superstructure is badly damaged, and probably even there is some damage to the hull of the ship," Ryzhenko added.

The Zaliv shipyard strike is the latest in a growing list of setbacks for the Black Sea Fleet. In July, the Kerch Strait Bridge was attacked for a second time by Ukrainian naval drones. In August, Russian ships and port infrastructure were targeted in the Crimean port of Sevastopol and the port of Novorossiysk to the east.

Then, in September, Ukrainian cruise missiles destroyed a Russian landing ship and an attack submarine—the latter capable of carrying Kalibrs—in a dry dock in Sevastopol. Days later, cruise missiles destroyed the Black Sea Fleet headquarters building in the Crimean city.

The series of strikes on Russia's Kalibr-capable vessels comes as Moscow prepares for another expected winter bombing campaign. The Kremlin is predicted to target Ukrainian energy infrastructure in a bid to freeze Kyiv into submission, as it did in winter 2022.

Oleksiy Chernyshov, the CEO of Ukraine's state-run Naftogaz energy corporation, told Newsweek in September that the country is "more prepared" than it was last year. However, he said that Kyiv faces a daunting winter challenge. Eating into Russia's cruise missile-capable ships will go some way to easing the pressure.

"I would say it's a significant achievement of the Ukrainian armed forces in order to mitigate the Russian missile potential, particularly before winter," Ryzhenko said.

Ukraine has embarked on a broad strategy to demilitarize the Black Sea Fleet. Repeated maritime successes have been supported by a steady drip of commando and drone raids on Crimea, chipping away at Russia's defensive networks on the occupied peninsula.

In September, Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Ukraine's former defense minister and now an adviser to the Defense Ministry, told Newsweek that the force's destruction is a necessity for Kyiv.

"Their goal is basically to suffocate us economically," Zagorodnyuk said. "The only way to get out of this situation is to destroy the Black Sea Fleet, to destroy their capability to pursue the occupation of the Black Sea and restore freedom of navigation.

"The only thing we can do is destroy the Black Sea Fleet and say that any new ship in the area will follow the previous ones," Zagorodnyuk—who is now the chairman of the Centre for Defence Strategies think tank in Kyiv—added. "There's no other option. And we should pursue that option until it's done."

Russia still enjoys overwhelming conventional naval superiority in the Black Sea, and its intermittent blockade of Ukraine's southern ports remains a pressing problem for Kyiv and its international agricultural customers. Still, Ukraine's unconventional campaign is limiting Moscow's warships.

Already, Russian vessels will not approach within around 200 miles of the Ukrainian coastline, fearing attacks by naval drones and the Neptune anti-ship missiles that sank the Moskva in April 2022.

Reports have also suggested that Russia has moved some of its most-advanced assets out of the home ports following recent Ukrainian attacks, even relocating some to the Sea of Azov.

Commenting on the weekend strike, Andriy Yermak, head of Ukraine's presidential office, posted a celebratory message on Telegram, saying: "Life constantly proves that the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation will not be in Crimea."