Responding to Evolving Space Risks

The current hotbed of space activity centers around low-Earth orbit (LEO). This region of space is full of satellites responsible for positioning, navigation, communications, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance for the U.S. These are vital tasks for maintaining U.S. security.

As other countries' access to space increases, so are the measures that the U.S. will have to take to protect their various space assets. While some invest in anti-satellite measures and soft-kill strategies like laser dazzling, it becomes imperative to study and prepare against these potential threats. Wars on Earth are increasingly influenced by commercial spacecraft. The war in Ukraine and the heavy use of Starlink, GPS, and commercial imagery by a smaller power as they take on a larger foe is an emergent example of what we can expect to see in the future. The intel that space assets provide can clearly change the tide of war, making these spacecraft increasingly vulnerable targets in future wars.

Given the increased reliance upon space-based assets and the associated risk that comes with that reliance, the United States should be the leader in norms and safe practices amongst the international community in order to create a more resilient infrastructure. The commercial utilization of LEO is already currently led by corporate interests. Reigning in and establishing universal best practices would allow LEO to be utilized more fully — without needless crowding.

The oft-cited Kessler's Syndrome is how increasing objects launched into space only accrues more space debris. Increased space debris can, in turn, eventually destroy functional spacecraft, creating yet more space debris. The additional debris can increasingly destroy more functioning spacecraft — so the theory goes. Eventually, LEO could become too clogged to safely launch spacecraft, effectively making LEO increasingly useless and trapping us on Earth. Without more regulation, something like Kessler's Syndrome could halt the space plans of every country on Earth. Clearly, international cooperation and universal standards of best practices are one obvious way to try and keep LEO safe for everyone.

Current laws, regulations, and agreements that bind and govern international space activity need to be updated and strengthened. The basis of current international space law is the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which does not reflect modern growth — or even all current and future countries. Standards like those provided by the United Nations are non-binding and are simply not up to date with the realities of current commerce and technology; and really, future threats to space are not known. The impact — and needs — that result from a dramatic increase in commercial space missions should be our focus.

One unfortunate aspect we expect in space travel's future is where there is money, there will be bad actors. Some countries have already invested in means of attacking satellites. To date, attacks against governmental and commercial orbital infrastructure focus mainly on cyberattacks and jamming. The future of space terrorism may revolve around the growing ability of small launches into space from virtually any location on Earth. Smaller groups of people (instead of governments) could send people and objects to space — and cause problems for objects already in space. As was noted with regard to Kessler's Syndrome, a single errant piece of space junk can act like a bomb due to the nature of orbits and velocities and have catastrophic consequences. Add with deliberate intent, things can become more dire.

There are currently 70-plus countries with space capabilities and nearly 10,000 companies — globally — that are involved in the space sector. Deterrence of bad behavior simply by rule-making is not a guaranteed strategy. With this caveat in mind, the options are as follows: either develop an anti-terrorism plan in space or find a way to clean up space debris. Ideally, both approaches should be pursued.

Satellites have already been targets. Commercial space companies are often early targets in war because of the boon that space-to-ground communication provides. Drones can provide information on battleground conditions, road markers, and troop movements. Images from commercial satellites can give citizens insight into the infrastructure of possible enemies. Using spacecraft can now lead to greater assessments of threats on Earth, making space a necessary facet of war. They can also lower the threshold as to what is needed to wage war so that non-traditional players can cause big problems.

Space, as a multi-faceted frontier, is highly reliant upon resources originating from Earth: terrestrial locations from which to launch, mine rare minerals, manufacture fuel, and operate supply chains are all necessities for the continued operation of our collective LEO infrastructure. Maintaining control over these terrestrial resources will influence who wins control of LEO and beyond — until such time as these resources become available off-world. While efforts are being made to significantly reduce reliance upon external suppliers, the United States is still heavily reliant on external providers for many of the things needed to utilize space. While the United States is somewhat centralized regarding launch locations, that is now changing as more locations and mobile platforms come into service. But weak points and strangleholds still remain.

Supply chain issues — those created after the pandemic and those endemic to the domestic and world economies — still make the U.S. weak in many aspects of space commerce and utilization. Strengthening ties with like-minded spacefaring allies would allow the U.S. to understand its weak points and establish universal standards. With interconnected and mutually implemented standards, supply chains can have fewer centralized failures.

An example of implementing 21st-century realities in space is the Artemis Accords, spearheaded by NASA to establish norms and modes of cooperation among all parties involved in the Artemis Lunar program. More than a dozen nations have signed on, save two major players. It's a start but only part of the solution to challenges presented by a rapidly expanded LEO and near-Earth economic zone in space. All of the players in the sector need to be involved. Otherwise, space exploration will not be all that it could be in terms of serving humanity's needs.