The GOP's failure to quickly settle on a successor to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy appears to have damaged the party's interests and image, perhaps irreparably. At least, that's what the overwhelmingly liberal majority of the punditocracy would have people believe.
To them, the Republicans are a party in perpetual chaos, incapable of winning the next national election. From McCarthy to Donald Trump and beyond, they believe the GOP's continual string of errors, unforced and otherwise, is setting up a return to power for the Democrats in Washington and across the states.
Maybe. Or maybe they're so busy cheerleading for the opposition that they ignore what's happening around them. As veteran conservative activist Morton Blackwell puts it in his Laws of the Public Policy Process, "Remember the other side has troubles too."
Joe Biden and his allies have had two years and an intervening election to fix the nation's problems. Instead, they've caused more. The latest Gallup poll, released in early October, finds that while neither party is held in particularly high regard, the American people trust the Republicans more than the Democrats "by healthy margins" to handle the economy and national security issues.
According to Gallup, 53 percent of Americans surveyed said the Republicans would do a better job "keeping the country prosperous," while just 39 percent said the Democrats would. The last time the gap favored the GOP so much was in March 1991, when George H.W. Bush was president.
If that were not enough, the American people also give the GOP much higher marks than the Democrats on the issue of keeping America safe. According to Gallup, 57 percent said they "have greater faith in the Republican Party to protect the country from international terrorism and military threats." Only 35 percent thought the Democrats would do a better job.
The Republicans are also viewed by the American people "as better able to handle whatever problem they name as the most important issue facing the country," Gallup said. The economy, government/poor leadership, and immigration are the issues Americans named most often as their biggest concerns.
Usually, there's some bright light that should give the party currently in power—the Democrats in this case—some hope. Not this time. The Gallup survey does not appear to be an outlier. The latest ABC News/Ipsos poll shows the American people have soured on Biden, perhaps permanently.
Just 26 percent approved of Biden's handling of immigration and border security. Only 32 percent gave him high marks for his handling of gun violence, a signature Biden issue. From Iran to the economy and from crime to abortion, the president doesn't have a majority of Americans backing him on a single issue the survey raised. From the top of the ticket down, any Democrat who runs with Biden in the next election is asking for trouble—yet the president continues to insist he'll be on the ballot in November of 2024.
The pressure to get Biden out is building. Veteran journalist Albert Hunt wrote on Monday that it was time for a Democratic governor to jump into the race. And it would be easy for the incumbent to bow out. His age and apparent health issues, which appear to be growing more severe by the day, provide an excellent opportunity for a graceful exit. Yet he won't take it. The reason? His most likely successor as party nominee would be far worse, politically speaking, for the Democratic Party than he is.
That's because since the late 1960s the Democrats have relied increasingly on identity politics to win elections. They don't appeal to voters so much as they appeal to minorities, women, and other demographic clusters by focusing intently on issues of importance to them as a group. They've created powerful constituencies that must at all times be appeased lest an electoral disaster occur—which is also what would likely happen were Kamala Harris to become the party's nominee.
It's hard to envision Harris as the president. She's not developed the aura of gravitas generally needed for the job. And she's not popular with voters. According to the Los Angeles Times, as of October 10, more than half of all voters nationwide—55 percent—had an unfavorable opinion of her. Her net approval of minus-16 is not a solid base on which to build a presidential campaign.
At the same time, if Biden quits, it will be catastrophic for his party if Harris is pushed aside in favor of Gavin Newsom, J.B. Pritzker, or Gretchen Whitmer, who, like the vice president, would campaign on a platform similar to what Biden has proposed as president. The lack of ideological difference between the candidates would cause a rift among Democrats nationally, particularly where black women are concerned. They are, after all, the Democrats' most loyal, strident supporters in just about every part of the country.
It's not a rift that will easily be healed. Which means, like it or not, the Democrats are in a difficult position going into the next election. More and more, it's starting to look like 1980 all over again. After a series of lucky breaks, their chickens are starting to come to roost.
Newsweek Contributing Editor Peter Roff is a veteran journalist who appears regularly on U.S. and international media platforms. He can be reached at roffcolumns@gmail.com and followed on social media @TheRoffDraft.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
