Payback Time For Trent Lott?

Senate Republicans are in a quandary. They don't like the Iraq war, but most are not willing to openly break with the White House—not yet, anyway. A vote taken Wednesday in the Senate Foreign Relations committee opposing the latest troop escalation won the support of only one Republican, Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel. If it had been a secret ballot, it would have passed overwhelmingly.

These are the sentiments roiling the Republican caucus as the leadership tries to shape a "sense of the Senate" resolution that doesn't embarrass President Bush yet gives political cover to nervous senators looking for a way out of unconditional support for an unpopular war. Counting the votes for an antiwar resolution and limiting the damage to his party falls to Mississippi Sen. Trent Lott, whose election to the second highest position in the Republican leadership was one of last year's biggest political comebacks.

One of the reasons Lott has the job is because his colleagues know he won't reflexively be doing the White House's bidding. Not after the way the president shoved him overboard for making racially retro remarks at a birthday party for Strom Thurmond, who'd run for president as a segregationist Dixiecrat in 1948. Bush and his henchman, Karl Rove, maneuvered New South Tennessee Sen. Bill Frist into the leadership. But when the former heart surgeon proved an ineffectual leader, the stage was set for Lott's return. "Having Bill Frist as a lap dog for the White House didn't get them anything—except they lost a bunch of seats," says one Republican lobbyist, who asked for anonymity when speaking about Bush.

Now everybody's watching to see how Lott handles the first significant challenge of the new Congress, a showdown between Bush and the Senate over the war. Lott is keeping his counsel. He declined to talk to NEWSWEEK. But one aide on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee who is involved in the policy debate says, "He must be sitting back and thinking, 'George Bush didn't do a damn thing for me. Why should I rush to his aid?'" That attitude could create friction with Republican leader Mitch McConnell, a White House loyalist whose wife is in the administration as Bush's secretary of Labor. McConnell has threatened to filibuster anything critical of Bush's war effort. It would fall to Lott as Republican whip—in charge of "whipping" his party into line—to round up the votes to carry out McConnell's threat, if it comes to that.

Lining up with Bush is increasingly dangerous if you're a politician; the momentum at the moment favors those breaking ranks with the White House. It's likely Lott will lay back, count the votes, calculate where the Republican caucus is going and act accordingly. Although Hagel was the lone GOP defection on the Foreign Relations Committee, he is more passionate, more direct and more persuasive in his opposition to Bush and the war than anybody on the Democratic side. He is leading the way, says a Senate Democratic staffer. "If the Republicans ignore this, they're ignoring a flashing red light."

Former Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Warner's decision to introduce a resolution of no confidence in Bush's surge complicates Lott's job. Does he urge Republicans to support it as the lesser of two evils? A former secretary of the Navy under Nixon, Warner is a Republican whose views carry a lot of weight. If the GOP caucus is moving away from Bush, the betting is that Lott will take the day off. "He's not going to whip them into the White House lane—why should he?" says the Democratic staffer, who declined to be quoted talking about partisan maneuvering. "He understands how this works."

For all the grandstanding, most senators are cowards. They're afraid to take a stand, worried about retribution from the White House, fearful of a primary challenge. And Republicans new to the minority are in unfamiliar territory, having to think for themselves, which they're not used to doing after years of following the leadership in lock step on most issues. Hagel recognized this as he challenged his colleagues to speak out: "What do you believe? What are you willing to support? What do you think? Why were you elected? If you wanted a safe job, go sell shoes. This is a tough business."

Lott saw what happened in the House, where an average of 63 Republicans voted with the Democrats to handily pass the first-100-hours agenda. Lott's job is not necessarily to block things but to make deals, and he's good at that. He's working with a president who's at the bottom of the food chain with a 28 percent approval rating. Even in Mississippi, Lott's home state, where patriotism runs high, the war has lost its luster. Hit hard by Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath, voters have lost confidence in Bush's policies across the board. Lott paid a stiff price for being out of step with Bush. Cast out of the leadership, he had plenty of time to consider his options. Now the tables are turned, and Bush is on the wrong side of history.