NEWSWEEK Poll: Giuliani Pulls Ahead for '08

In the aftermath of 9/11, nobody thought he could fill Rudy Giuliani's shoes. But under billionaire Michael Bloomberg, New York City's Democrat-turned-Republican mayor, the city rebounded. He's overseen a continued decline in the crime rate, forced restaurants to go smoke-free and has made vast strides in improving the public schools, the bane of any urban mayor. Not as ill-tempered as Giuliani, Bloomberg is doing a good job—perhaps, some New Yorkers might say, even a better job than his predecessor did. So why isn't he the one running for president?

Publicly, Bloomberg is focused on his second term and leaving the city in better shape than he got it. Privately, Bloomberg and political adviser Kevin Sheekey are meeting with pollsters and consultants to assess the mayor's chances as a third-party, independent candidate. "There is no Bloomberg campaign," Sheekey tells NEWSWEEK. "But we have certainly reached out." At a dinner last year with Al From, founder of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council, Bloomberg was candid and self-deprecating, wondering what chance a 5-foot-7, divorced Jew has in the celebrity-sweepstakes presidential contest.

The answer is that it depends on who the nominees are for the two major parties, and how much cash Bloomberg is willing to spend. The money part is easy for a self-made media mogul. "He could spend $500 million in a campaign and not even think about it," says From. But he'd probably do it only if buyer's remorse sets in among the voters. Because the primary process is so front-loaded this cycle, the winners will be known in early February, leaving nine months until the election for voters to get antsy. "He won't say anything until March of next year," says a former aide privy to the early discussions who didn't want to be named talking about them. "The guiding philosophy is who the Democratic and Republican nominees are, and the mood of the country once they know who those two people are."

It's hard to project a year in advance if that opening will be there, but there is so much discontent with the two parties that the stage could be set for an independent run. Hamilton Jordan, who masterminded Jimmy Carter's 1976 come-from-nowhere candidacy, and Doug Bailey, a longtime Republican consultant, have teamed up to offer a third-party centrist ticket to be chosen online in a virtual convention in June 2008. So far, 35,000 members have signed on—hardly a groundswell, but Jordan and Bailey are working to get on the ballot in all 50 states. Bloomberg would be a catch for their "Unity '08" ticket, though he might bristle at the rule that the slate has to be bipartisan and just go it alone. Still, Jordan initiated a meeting with Sheekey. Says Jordan: "I let him know there's an opening."

Uncommon Knowledge

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