A Masterclass on Not Treating the Working Class as Second Class | Opinion

The 2024 election is going to come down to swing voters in six or seven swing states. As they always are, the results are going to be extremely tight. A combination of factors will determine the election—especially whether it's Joe Biden or Donald Trump who can get more voters to the polls who do not support either candidate; as well as the role third-party candidates play in draining away votes that would likely would have gone to President Biden.

There is much hope among Democratic thinkers that a combination of factors and stratagems may keep former President Trump from becoming just plain President Trump, again. The Republican presumptive nominee has a swing-state ceiling of 47 percent of voters; autocratic tendencies; uses hate- and resentment-filled rhetoric; boasts that he is responsible for the overturning of Roe v. Wade; and the public will be bombarded with the ongoing developments in Trump's various court cases.

Democrats are increasingly attracting well-educated, suburban dwellers, especially women who feel passionately on the abortion issue. Republicans, and especially Donald Trump, are increasingly attracting non-college educated working-class voters. This trend appears to be particularly hurting Biden's reelection prospects, according to a number of polls, when it comes to Black and Hispanic working-class voters. Trump appears to be attracting a much higher percentage of those voters, particularly Black and Hispanic working-class men, than he has in the past. Given how slim the margins are going to be in the swing states, this is an absolutely critical factor that the Biden campaign needs to address.

So, what can Biden do to secure wavering Black and Hispanic citizens, as well as those white, working-class voters who may still be undecided? A new book written by Newsweek Opinion Editor Batya Ungar-Sargon, "Second Class: How the Elites Betrayed America's Working Men and Women," provides a master class discussion of how to win over a working-class that is not satisfied with either political party—especially the currently undecided working-class swing vote that may not vote at all, or could vote for a third party candidate. The book sets forth a clear perspective on how middle-of-the-road working-class voters feel about each party.

For instance, these voters view the Democratic Party as good on health care, but terrible on immigration; The Republican Party is good on immigration, but prioritizes extreme positions on social issues and holds up the anti-wokeness banner as their priority. "Second Class" lays out, based on interviews with scores of working-class voters of all ethnicities and geographies around the nation, a clear assessment of what working-class voters most care about, and Ungar-Sargon concludes that the "a working-class electorate that feels alienated from both parties."

"Second Class" paints the picture, which some might find surprising—though others would expect it—that working-class voters overwhelmingly focus on their personal economic circumstances, not social issues. Higher wages and quality health care are of the utmost concern. However, also key to their outlook is a focus on immigration, not simply garnered from media coverage of porous borders that immigrants are pouring through. There is widespread belief that immigrants, both legal and illegal, are a form of economic competition that either reduces job opportunities for Americans, or undermines the higher wages that workers hope will come their way. The importance of the immigration issue in shaping the overall outlook of working-class voters cannot be underestimated.

Ungar-Sargon also reports an anti-corporate sentiment held by workers who believe companies maximize profit at the expense of their employees. As a result, interviewees heavily supported higher corporate taxes. In addition, "Second Class" makes clear there is a perception among working-class voters, often based on personal familiarity with the issue, that there are many who scam social welfare programs one way or another, coupled with very strong views that not enough is being done to crack down on people cheating the system.

"Second Class" also paints a picture of a very socially tolerant working class, with a belief that abortion should be rare, but legal, and that gay rights should be fully supported. A more conservative viewpoint emerges when it comes to certain transgender issues, such as how transgender issues should be taught in school, , and how transgender athletes should be allowed to compete.

The president's policies are actually in sync with most of these views, especially when it comes to health care, the importance of which cannot be overstated. It is ironic that over the course of 10 years, Obamacare has gone from an issue that Republicans successfully used to undermine Democratic candidates to an immensely popular program. Trump, who made trying to repeal Obamacare his first order of business as president, is certainly vulnerable on the issue.

The area where Biden and Democrats are perceived to be most out of step with the moderate working-class voter is on immigration. Opinion polls make it clear that immigration has become a significant voting issue across many blocs, most significantly, working-class Americans.

It appeared for a while that the Democrats had a very strong talking point on the immigration issue, given that Trump's influence over the House GOP clearly tanked an important bipartisan bill that would have toughened and reformed U.S. immigration policy tremendously. While the talking point will no doubt be used throughout the presidential campaign, it is not significantly changing public perception on the issue, and Biden's support on immigration among middle-of-the-road working-class voters is significantly lagging. There is clearly an opportunity for Biden to demonstrate he will try to "fix" the issue through tough executive orders, but the Republicans are just waiting to pounce if he does. They are ready to argue that the president could have taken such action all along, and thus did not need legislation to rectify current failures in the immigration system.

So, bringing this back to the Ungar-Sargon working-class middle formulation, if a third-party candidate emerges who is strong on health care; tolerant on social issues; in favor of higher taxes on corporations and billionaires; talks tough on people cheating government welfare programs; supports union efforts and minimum wage lawsin support of working class wages; and is demonstrably tougher on immigration than the current White House occupant, there is clearly a significant opportunity to drain votes from Biden.

Moreover, Trump is having great success in pounding away on the immigration issue. Biden is running a huge risk of looking as if he cannot control the immigration situation if the administration does not take forceful action very soon. It becomes increasingly hard to explain Biden's passivity on taking strong action on the border given how significant this issue has become, not only in and of itself but as a proxy for the perception that "things are out of control, and we need a president who is going to know how to restore order."

Inflation also feeds into the feeling that the world is out of control, but that issue does not lend itself to a show of presidential power through executive order issuance.

To be clear, there is plenty of support for the position that immigration is playing a major role in creating a strong economy, an economy for which Biden is not getting anywhere near enough credit. From household formation to job creation to helping tame inflation by holding down service-sector wage increases, immigration is playing quite a constructive role in the economy.

The population growth that immigration injects into the U.S. is a key economic advantage that the U.S. has over other major economies whose population growth has stagnated. However, none of that matters to the working-class perception on the immigration issue. Only forceful action intended to show that something meaningful is being done to stem the flow of immigrants can help Biden's approval rating on this issue.

The working-class voters who dislike both parties and their respective presidential candidates—the so-called double haters—are clearly going to be up for grabs. Biden's positions capture a lot of the swing working-class sentiments on key issues, but his failure on immigration policy risks negating that support. In order to motivate the swing working-class voter to get to the polls and vote for Biden, the president's campaign would be well advised to claim the lane set forth in "Second Class," and avoid the perception that it is relegating the working-class to second class.

Tom Rogers is executive chairman of Oorbit Gaming and Entertainment, an editor-at-large for Newsweek, the founder of CNBC and a CNBC contributor. He also established MSNBC, is the former CEO of TiVo, a member of Keep Our Republic (an organization dedicated to preserving the nation's democracy). He is also a member of the American Bar Association Task Force on Democracy.

The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.