Massachusetts Senate Race No Slam Dunk for Democrats

The notion that a Republican opposed to the health-care reform that Ted Kennedy championed could actually win Kennedy's seat has Democrats running scared in the final days before the Jan. 19 special election in Massachusetts. Democrat Martha Coakley has rung the alarm bells, telling Democratic donors in a conference call arranged by DNC chair Tim Kaine that it's "frightening how much traction" her opponent, Republican Scott Brown, has been able to get in just the last week. Brown is a pro-choice but otherwise typical Republican, running as the small-government savior who can deliver the country from Obamacare. Asked in a debate Sunday night how he would feel as the 41st vote denying the Democrats their filibuster majority on health care from Kennedy's seat, he said, "It's not the Kennedys' seat; it's not the Democrats' seat; it's the people's seat."

Brown is an attractive candidate, and the Coakley campaign was slow to recognize his ability to galvanize voters in a state where only 11 percent of the electorate is registered Republican. A poll that showed he had narrowed Coakley's double-digit lead to nine points was all it took to rev up Republicans across the country. The Brown campaign said it raised $1.5 million over the Internet in 24 hours. During Sunday night's debate, Coakley was on the defensive much of the time and didn't get the clear victory she needed. With all the energy coalescing on Brown's side and a flood of ads, many from the conservative American Future Fund, overwhelming Coakley's on-air presence, Democrats realized it was time to take the gloves off. Coakley had been running a polite, above-the-battle campaign. That ended this week with the first attack ad of 2010, which calls Brown a "lockstep Republican" who wants to protect Wall Street and the wealthy. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee followed up with an ad underscoring Brown's pledge to kill health-care reform and tallying his votes to cut education funding.

The Coakley campaign began the week trying to convince Democrats they were in a tough race. A lot of folks had a hard time believing the heir to Kennedy's seat in an overwhelmingly Democratic state could really be in trouble. That case has been made, and the outcome of Tuesday's election, while still favoring the Democrat, is not the slam dunk a lot of people thought it would be.

Uncommon Knowledge

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