For Latin American Leaders, Venezuela Looms Large in U.S. Presidential Election | Opinion

Although it won't be streamed or broadcast, across the political spectrum, America's media firmament has been all-consumed with the specter of former President Trump's so-called hush-money trial in New York City, where he is facing 34 felony charges for falsifying business records and engaging in election interference. But Americans aren't the only ones watching this courtroom drama play out; the rest of the world is also paying very close attention not only to the trial itself but to how its outcome may impact the contours of the upcoming presidential contest, and most importantly, American foreign policy in the years ahead.

For America's neighbors to the south in Latin America and the Caribbean, the unpredictability of the U.S. political process is always a source of concern. Newsweek spoke to the former president of Colombia, Iván Duque, to get his thoughts on how leaders in the region are viewing the spectacle of this upcoming presidential cycle.

"There's a lot of interest and anxiety and ... a lot of uncertainty," said Duque, who was in office from 2018-2022, working with both the Trump and Biden administrations. "[Everyone] wants to know how policy with Latin America is going to evolve in the years to come."

For Duque and many other regional leaders, by far the biggest area of concern revolves around how the next American president will deal with the region's resident troublemaker, Venezuela. The oil-rich country is a perpetual source of instability and agitation, and in particular, strongman Nicolás Maduro, who has held on to power by relying on his "intelligence services ... to repress opposition to the government," where "crimes and violations, amounting to crimes against humanity, including extremely grave acts of torture were committed," according to a recent United Nations report.

Although Maduro and his failed-state authoritarian government have been charged by the U.S. Department of Justice on a battery of crimes including narco-terrorism and drug trafficking, Venezuela's role as a key oil producer has consistently enabled his regime to skate by relatively unscathed.

Aside from clamping down on dissenters, Maduro has made a habit of cozying up to some of the biggest nemeses of the U.S., namely China, Russia, and Iran.

The result of all this misconduct and malfeasance has forced the Maduro regime to deal with on-again, off-again sanctions from both the Trump and Biden administrations, although some argue they only hardened Maduro's grip on power. But sanctions are a clumsy tool in the foreign policy toolbox; they often punish those at the base of the economic pyramid while hardening the resolve of those at the top whose behavior they are seeking to modify. Such is the case in Venezuela where the Biden administration had agreed to temporarily lift some of the most severe Trump-era sanctions in the hopes that Maduro would allow for open elections, only to have to recently re-instate those very same sanctions after it became abundantly clear that Maduro wasn't making good on his promises.

Nearly 8 million Venezuelans—roughly a fifth of the country's population—have fled since Maduro came to power, setting off one of the largest refugee and migrant crises on the planet, impacting the social and economic fabric of many countries across the region, and ultimately, the dynamics of U.S. political discourse around immigration policy and border security.

Many leaders believe that the next U.S. president—be it Biden or Trump—will be forced to clamp down on the Venezuelan regime even harder—or engage directly with Venezuela head on; they are growing increasingly alarmed by Maduro's latest gambit—his spurious claims to nearly two-thirds of the territory of neighboring Guyana, a close ally of the U.S. and an emerging oil powerhouse that the White House sees as essential to stabilizing global energy markets.

In a move straight out of Russian President Vladimir Putin's playbook, Maduro announced the creation of a new Venezuelan state inside of Guyana—even appointing an interim governor—a maneuver that some fear is a preamble to an eventual military incursion. Such a move would likely lead to a swift response by the U.S. and draw in regional powers like Brazil, but having U.S. boots on the ground in South America wouldn't sit too well with locals either.

"Maduro is desperate to remain in power and he's trying to use Guyana as a scapegoat in his nationalistic speech," Duque told Newsweek.

Yet when it comes to Venezuela, there are no easy answers. However, leaders across Latin America know that, one way or another, the next president of the United States will have almost no choice but to get involved.

But how exactly the U.S. decides to deal with Venezuela might be very different depending on who is sitting in the Oval Office, which is why, all over Latin America, leaders are watching this election very closely.

Arick Wierson is a six-time Emmy Award-winning television producer and served as a senior media and political adviser to former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. He advises corporate clients on communications strategies in the United States, Africa, and Latin America.

The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.