The war in Ukraine has centered the focus of the world on Eastern Europe. No longer do people discuss democratization in Eurasia, and most people have forgotten about the color revolutions that had such a profound effect on the countries of the former Soviet Union.
The recent meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization again showed the importance of the Central Asian states. Chief among those states is Kazakhstan. Both President Xi Jinping of China and President Vladimir Putin of Russia made a point to meet with Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the president of Kazakhstan. Putin sought to have support for the war in Ukraine, while Xi looked to strengthen ties between China and Kazakhstan. Central Asian states have always found themselves in a tug-of-war between Russian and Chinese interests, and it looks as if they will play an even more important role now.
Kazakhstan is facing a domestic political crisis as Nursultan Nazarbayev left office in 2019 after serving as president for over 27 years. Kazakhstan was more stable than its neighbors, but it has been sliding toward authoritarianism for over two decades. As an oil exporter, Kazakhstan suffers from long-term economic inequalities which is maintained by corruption. The political opposition is subject to intimidation and violence. As a relatively new leader, Tokayev has faced growing domestic discontent that has led to massive demonstrations that required Russia to intervene to preserve the government.
Putin's aid in helping to put down democratic opposition to Tokayev in January 2022 had a price: Russia secured and deepened its oil trade with Beijing by displacing Kazakhstani exports and replacing them with Russian oil. Tokayev sacrificed the economic welfare of his people to consolidate his leadership and his leadership is dependent on Russian support.
Kazakhstan is the ninth largest country globally and is geopolitically important to both Beijing and Moscow. Putin claims that Kazakhstan is in Russia's "sphere of influence" and yet Tokayev has quietly supported Ukraine and has refused to recognize the Moscow controlled states of Donetsk and Luhansk. China controls a quarter of Kazakhstan's oil and is expanding its ownership of enterprises. Many locals trace their heritage to Genghis Khan and Mongolia which complicates its national identity.
In a country that suffers from systematic inequality, Putin and Xi are pursuing policies that make a color revolution more likely. Kazakhstan's economic policies exacerbate wealth inequality, while increasing authoritarian control over the populace. Russian and Chinese policies serve to deprive Kazakhstan of internal wealth and exacerbate internal domestic problems. While Beijing and Moscow see Kazakhstan as a strategically important partner, the policies they put forth are likely to generate domestic instability.
The corruption and systematic inequality are possibly greater today than when the uprisings occurred earlier this year. The one major change is that Moscow is now occupied by war in Ukraine and is unlikely to be able to offer the same support that it did in January.
While Kazakhstan has voiced its concerns related to the war in Ukraine, it also realizes that it cannot alienate Moscow for fear of losing its support for the current regime. Further, Astana is concerned with the growth of China and the growing alliance between Moscow and Beijing. Astana has tried to play Moscow and Beijing off one another, but with increased cooperation between China and Russia to challenge the United States' power, it is increasingly difficult for Astana to balance Chinese and Russian influence against each other in Kazakhstan.
It is likely that the domestic unrest will boil over and lead to massive instability and a color revolution in Kazakhstan. This will be utilized by the West to open up another front in the increasing conflict with Russia in Ukraine. Although it is very difficult to predict the timing when such an uprising may occur, Kazakhstan is a strong candidate for a color revolution.
Michael O. Slobodchikoff is the founding director of the Center for Eastern and Central European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies at Troy University. He is also professor and chair of the political science department. He has written several books on Russian relations with the former Soviet Union.
G. Doug Davis is associate professor of political science and the director of the master's in international relations program at Troy University. He is the author of two books on Eastern Europe and Eurasia.
The views expressed in this article are the writers' own.
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