Joe Biden's Gen Z Problem Might Not Be So Bad

President Joe Biden has a strong lead over other candidates among young voters most likely to vote in the 2024 election, a new poll from the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics (IOP) revealed.

Biden and former president Donald Trump are both viewed as front-runners to win their party's primary elections but have struggled to connect with young voters, a group that is historically known for its low turnout. Generation Z voters—born between 1997 and 2012—are more likely to vote Democratic than Republican, according to the poll, but Biden has faced an increasing disconnect with young voters over issues such as the Israel-Hamas war and student loan relief. The disconnect has been exacerbated as independent candidates like Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., attract growing support from the same age range.

The Harvard IOP poll published on Tuesday surveyed 2,098 people between ages 18 and 29 from October 23 to November 6. Total results revealed that Biden held a slim lead of 4 percent over Trump, but his lead grew to 15 points among registered voters in the same age range.

Being registered doesn't guarantee someone will vote. In 2020, 71 percent of the polled sample was registered, but 30 percent of them still didn't vote.

Biden's lead over Trump in young voters grows even larger when the poll considers the registered voters who are most likely to vote in 2024.

"Among the most likely voters at this point in the 2024 cycle (the 49% who say they will definitely vote), President Biden leads by 24 points, 57% to 33%," a summary of the poll said. "In 2020, exit polls reported President Biden winning the youth vote, 60% to 36%."

Newsweek reached out to campaigns for Biden and Trump by email for comment.

The results implied that Biden faces a bigger problem with turnout than with attracting support from young voters, an important age range for his reelection campaign.

"Fascinating results from new Harvard IOP poll of age 18-29 voters, which has a robust sample size of n=2098 (as opposed to crosstab subgroups w/ much smaller sample sizes/larger MoE)," former Global Strategy Group pollster Adam Carlson posted on X, formerly Twitter, on Tuesday. "It finds Biden has more of a turnout/enthusiasm problem w/ them rather than a persuasion problem."

A recent Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) study found that 40 million Gen Z voters could join the voter pool in the 2024 election, making the group a critical bloc in determining the next U.S. president.

The Harvard IOP poll comes months after a Washington Post/ABC News poll found that Trump, the frontrunner in the 2024 GOP presidential primary, had a 19 percent lead over Biden (55 to 36 percent) for those aged 18 to 39, and a 20-point lead for those aged under 35.

However, the recent Harvard IOP poll found that most Gen Z voters considered themselves affiliated with an independent political party (38 percent) compared to 35 percent who felt affiliated with the Democratic party and 26 percent who felt affiliated with the Republican party.

In the poll, 10 percent of those surveyed said they would vote for Kennedy if the election was held today.

Newsweek reached out to Kennedy's campaign by email for comment.

In a follow-up post, Carlson wrote that he expects Kennedy's support will fall as the election gets closer.

"Regarding third party threats, I have a sneaking suspicion that RFK Jr. is serving as a de facto protest vote, and that his vote share will decrease among young voters once they learn more about him," Carlson said.