Donald Trump is the slight favorite to win this year's presidential election, according to the latest odds from a leading bookmaker provided nearly six months before voters go to the polls on November 5.
Trump's odds of a second White House term are 6/5 (45.5 percent) against 7/5 (41.7 percent) according to figures provided to Newsweek by Betfair, UK-based bookies.
The 2024 presidential election is widely expected to be unusually bitter, following the contested 2020 outcome, with both main candidates accusing the other of being a danger to American democracy. During a speech in January Biden claimed "democracy is on the ballot" in the upcoming election, while during a rally in April Trump shot back at the Democratic incumbent claiming "he's the threat to democracy."
While favoring Trump to win overall, because of the Electoral College system, Betfair concluded Biden is the firm favorite to win the popular vote. The bookies gave him odds of 2/5 (71.4 percent) for securing the most votes across the U.S. against 4/1 (20 percent) for the Republican challenger. If this does take place in November it would replicate the 2016 contest when Hillary Clinton won the popular vote, but Trump was the final Electoral College victor.
Newsweek has contacted representatives of the 2024 Joe Biden and Donald Trump presidential campaigns by email. This article will be updated with comment.
Betfair did favor the Republicans to take back control of the Senate in November, with odds of 2/5 (71.4 percent) on this happening against 2/1 (33.3 percent) for Democrats maintaining control. Currently, there are 51 Democratic-aligned Senators, including three who sit as independents, against 49 Republicans.
Speaking to Newsweek, Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said: "Despite his legal woes, Donald Trump remains the punters' favorite to win the White House, according to Betfair Exchange punters. His odds remain a favorable 6/5, while President Biden is close behind at 7/5.
"Republicans seem set to control the Senate after the next election, with odds of 2/5. The odds of the Democrats keeping hold of the upper house trail behind at 2/1. Whoever wins the Presidential election will need support in the Senate, as has become clear in recent months as Senators wrangled with President Biden's funding for Ukraine amongst other issues."
Two recent polls gave Trump a slight lead over Biden ahead of the presidential election.
A Florida Atlantic University and Mainstream Research survey found 40 percent would back Biden versus 38 percent for Trump in a race that also includes independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Among likely voters, only Biden's lead extends to 44 percent versus 39 percent.
Separately, a Reuters/Ipsos poll of 856 registered voters put Biden one point ahead of Trump, at 40 percent of the vote against 39 percent. However, this is down from a four-point lead Biden enjoyed in the previous Reuters/Ipsos survey.
However, an ActiVote survey of 953 likely voters put Trump ahead of Biden in a straight contest by 52.7 percent against 47.3 percent. This included a Trump lead of 51 percent to 49 percent for those who only have a high school education and 53 percent to 47 percent among college graduates.
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James Bickerton is a Newsweek U.S. News reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is covering U.S. politics and world ... Read more
