How Donald Trump's Chances of Winning Key Swing States Have Changed

An Emerson College poll of key swing states in the presidential election reveals how Donald Trump's chances of winning are changing.

Trump is expected to face off against President Joe Biden in November, as each candidate appears to have secured enough delegates to win his party's nomination and go on to a rematch of the 2020 race.

On Tuesday, just over six months before the election, Emerson released a poll of the swing states likely to determine the race's outcome. The survey found that while Trump holds a lead over Biden in each of these states, shifts have occurred in these states since Emerson's swing state poll conducted in November 2023.

Newsweek reached out to Biden's and Trump's campaigns for comment via email.

Swing States Where Trump's Lead Is Growing

Trump has expanded his lead in three states—Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Arizona, long viewed as leaning Republican until backing Biden in 2020 and Democrats in several statewide races in 2022, is expected to be one of the closest races in November. The new poll found that Trump holds a lead of 48-44, a 4 percentage point margin that has grown since the November poll, when he led 43-41.

Trump is now leading in Michigan, the only state where Biden held an advantage in the November 2023 poll. Michigan gave Biden the largest margin of these swing states in 2020, but his campaign has faced questions about whether he can win it this year because of his response to the war between Israel and Hamas, which has brought a backlash from some Muslim-American communities in the state.

The former president now leads Biden in Michigan by a single point, with 45 percent of respondents saying they plan to support him and 44 percent saying they are backing Biden. Last November, Emerson found 43 percent of respondents saying they were voting for Biden, while 41 percent favored Trump.

Trump's lead in Wisconsin also narrowly grew. In November, he led by a single point, winning 44 percent of respondents to Biden's 43 percent. In the latest poll, however, Trump leads 47-45.

Swing States Where Biden Is Making Progress

Meanwhile, Biden has made gains in three other swing states.

Georgia and Nevada have seen Biden make the most progress, according to the poll. In November, Trump held a 7-point lead in Georgia, winning 47 percent of respondents to Biden's 40 percent.

In the April poll, Trump led by only 3 points. While 47 percent of respondents still said they were supporting Trump, Biden's support grew to 44 percent.

Nevada, a state that has backed Democrats in every presidential election since 2008, has seen Trump lead in several polls ahead of the 2024 election. In November's Emerson poll, Trump led Biden by 7 points, 46-39. The April poll found Trump with a 3-point lead, at 45-42.

Biden has also gained a bit of ground in Pennsylvania. In November, Trump held a lead of 46-43 in the Keystone State. The latest poll shows him with a 47-45 lead.

Emerson's poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from April 25 to 29 and had a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points.