Never mind the latest indictments. Or any that preceded them. Even though it came out before Donald Trump's latest plunge into the judicial process, the most recent Siena College/New York Times poll suggests two things likely outcomes: that the former president will be the 2024 Republican presidential nominee and that he's just as likely to win the general election as lose. As to the nomination, Trump is campaigning like an incumbent. His 2020 loss to Joe Biden may have looked decisive. But a shift of fewer than 50,000 votes in states like Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin would have put him back in the White House for a second term.
That should help put his lead in perspective. The race for the nomination is not, as it was in 2016, wide open. The field is likewise crowded but works to Trump's advantage once again. The Republicans who gather later this month for the first debate in Milwaukee will be talking about him even if he's not on the stage with them.
For those challenging Trump for the nomination, that's a tactical mistake. They should be talking about their vision for the future and what they would do in office—not what Trump did or might do.
Every time they mention him, even negatively, they take the attention off themselves, putting it on him where he likes it.
Beating Biden is also in the cards. This is why his approval rating is upside down badly in every credible survey. In 2020 he ran as the candidate of the sensible center, the one who would be a moderating force on extremists on both sides of the aisle. As president, his administration is going after gas stoves.
Trump was upside down, too, when he was president, but for different reasons. Lots of people did not like his braggadocious swagger and tendency to punch down instead of up. They enjoyed the gains they saw in the stock market, their retirement portfolios, and stable interest rates and prices.
Trump governed as he said he would. Biden has not. In 2024, Trump and Biden will be running on their records. Trump is proud of his. Biden, despite his recent embrace of the word "Bidenomics," is not. He routinely tries to deflect attention from what his policies have done to the economy while exaggerating his accomplishments in critical areas like job creation.
With COVID in the rearview mirror, past performance gives Trump the edge on most questions regarding whether people are better off now than they were four years ago and which candidate for president they expect to help make them better off four years from now. Trump's first-term deficiencies can be glossed over by a commitment to do better.
If that doesn't work out well, like "read my lips, no new taxes" and "if you like your health care, you can keep it," most people will excuse a broken campaign promise if given a good enough reason.
On the other hand, Biden is locked into four more years of running the country as people feared Bernie Sanders would. The polls say Americans care about climate change and want to keep the oceans from rising. They're just not willing to incur the costs Team Biden intends to impose in the name of doing so.
People vote on the economy. Trump's record on these issues outshines Biden's in meaningful ways. Under Trump, the price of consumer goods was relatively stable. During Biden's first 29 months in office, the Consumer Price Index rose 15.7 percent. When Trump left office, the average rate for a 30-year mortgage was 2.7 percent. Under Biden, they've grown to just under 7 percent. The price of gasoline, an economic benchmark for most Americans, is up by more than $1 precisely because of Biden's energy policies. Once again, in less than four years, America has gone from being a net energy producer to a net consumer of resources imported from parts of the world prone to political instability.
Trump did better with the economy. That matters. It is a primary reason why he is leading the pack in the race for the 2024 GOP nomination and why he's a good bet to win a second term. There's always the possibility a black swan could come along to ruin things, but it's unlikely. He's survived crises that would have destroyed anyone else's candidacy.
That's not an endorsement. It's a statement of fact. Trump voters want relief from Washington's taxes, regulations, and interference in many aspects of our lives. For the second or maybe third time in a century, we are being taxed, spent, and regulated into oblivion. Enough is enough—and tough times sometimes call for tough measures.
Newsweek contributing editor Peter Roff is a veteran Washington journalist and former U.S. News & World Report columnist. A former senior political writer for United Press International, he appears regularly on U.S. and international media platforms. He can be reached at roffcolumns AT gmail.com and followed on social media @TheRoffDraft.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
