A new poll showed that former President Donald Trump holds a sizable lead over Democratic President Joe Biden in a hypothetical 2024 presidential election matchup, despite the Republican frontrunner's recent federal indictment connected to his handling of classified documents.
The new poll was carried the week after Trump was indicted by a grand jury for the way he handled hundreds of classified documents and allegedly obstructed efforts to return them to the federal government. Many of the documents were seized by the FBI in a search of his Mar-a-Lago house in Florida last August, while some were returned by his lawyers.
The FBI search came months after a subpoena was issued requiring Trump to return all classified documents he took from the White House when he left office in January 2021. The Department of Justice later appointed Special Counsel Jack Smith to oversee the investigation. Trump denies any wrongdoing and maintains his innocence. He pleaded "not guilty" at his arraignment in Florida on Tuesday.
The Harvard CAPS-Harris poll, which was conducted from June 14 to 15, showed that 45 percent of the 2,090 respondents surveyed would vote for Trump while 39 percent said they would vote for Biden if the 2024 race were held now. Meanwhile, 15 percent said they were not sure which candidate they would vote for.
However, the current voter support for Biden and Trump decreased from the Harvard CAPS-Harris poll in May. The last poll showed that 40 percent of respondents would back Biden, while 47 percent said Trump.
Trump is now facing a total of 37 counts, including 31 counts of willful retention of national defense information, in the classified documents case. He became the first former president to face federal criminal charges in the history of the United States. The former president says that the charges are politically motivated and part of a "witch hunt" against him and his supporters.
The Friday Harvard CAPS-Harris poll also showed that only 77 percent of Democrats would support Biden, while 86 percent of Republicans would back Trump.
"The indictment of former [President Trump] has [had] no impact on his lead against [Joe] Biden whose job rating remains at 43 percent," explained Mark Penn, the co-director of the Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll, according to the Hill. The poll was carried out through a collaboration between the Harris Poll and the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University.
While Biden and Trump are currently the clear frontrunners for their respective political parties' presidential nomination, much could change between now and when the primaries are held. Biden faces two Democratic challengers, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson. The GOP field is more crowded, with 11 Republicans attempting to dethrone Trump as the leader of their party.
What Other Polls Show
Other polls that were recently conducted after Trump was indicted also showed the former president ahead of the incumbent president. A poll conducted by CBS and YouGov between June 9 and 10 showed that the majority of Trump supporters are convinced that the indictment is a result of a politicized and "weaponized" justice department and federal agencies. Trump and his allies have repeatedly promoted that view since the investigation first became public.
The poll revealed that 76 percent of the respondents—likely GOP primary voters—are more concerned that the indictment is politically motivated than they are worried about his alleged misconduct causing a national security risk. Only 12 percent of the like Republican voters surveyed were worried about the implications for national security.
Other polls aggregated by political and polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight suggest that Trump may either have a small lead over Biden, or is behind his Democratic rival by roughly the same margins.
According to the most recently analyzed polls, a survey by Premise found that Trump had an 8-percentage-point lead over Biden, among 1,911 adults surveyed between June 9 and12. That lead slimmed, however, when the numbers were defined by registered voters, giving Trump just a 2 point lead.
Newsweek reached out by email to Trump's media office for comment.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Fatma Khaled is a Newsweek weekend reporter based in New York City. Her focus is reporting on U.S. politics, world ... Read more
