Clift: Top Dems Line Up for Senate Seats

It seems like ancient history, but for a time last year, former Virginia governor Mark Warner looked like a hot prospect for the Democratic nomination for the White House. Tall and gangly with a toothy grin that prompted one writer to compare his teeth to mah-jongg tiles, Warner had governed ably and amicably with a Republican legislature in a Red State. Equally at home tending to the state's business elite as attending NASCAR races, he left office with an approval rating of more than 80 percent.

He had barely gotten out of the gate as a presidential contender when he caught the political world by surprise by saying he wouldn't be running after all. "I want to have a real life," he said. He appeared comfortable with his decision but made it clear he wasn't giving up on politics. So it was hardly surprising that when there were rumors that John Warner, the senior senator from Virginia (and no relation) would not run again, that Democrats were salivating over the prospect of picking up the seat—and that they knew who they wanted as a candidate. If anybody could turn a Red State blue, it was MARKNOTJOHN, as Warner's bumper sticker a decade earlier read when he first tried for the seat.

New York Sen. Chuck Schumer, the iron man who delivered the Senate to the Democrats in the '06 election, swung into action, urging Warner over dinner in January to run, and while no firm decision was made, the entreaties continued. Getting courted by Schumer is a little like having a fire hose turned on you, the man is relentless, and there's no getting away. Warner's announcement this week that he will run for the Senate was made easier by John Warner's declaration last week that at age 80 he would not seek another term.

Schumer's salesmanship aside, this is a career move that makes sense for Warner, 52, who would otherwise be left on the sidelines hoping Hillary would tap him as her running mate. That's like waiting for the Iraqi oil deal to come together; there are too many imponderables along the way. Seeking another term as governor was Warner's other option, but he'd been there, done that, and a friend says he didn't want to go back to Richmond to fight all the old battles. "From Warner to Warner," chuckles a senior Democrat, anticipating a seamless shift of power in the heart of the Old Confederacy.

Another possible Red State pickup for the Democrats is the seat antiwar Republican Chuck Hagel is vacating in Nebraska. Bob Kerrey, another voice from the past, is telling friends he's ready to reclaim the seat, which he held from 1989 to 2001, when he decamped for Manhattan to assume the presidency of The New School. "There are only so many fine restaurants you can go out to," says a friend, explaining Kerrey's yearning to return to the Senate. Kerrey remains popular in Nebraska, in part because of his centrist politics, but also because he brought a touch of glamour to the state. He is remembered for dating actress Debra Winger, who created quite a stir when she was reported to have spent the night in the governor's mansion.

Remembrance of things past works both ways, however, and no sooner did Kerrey indicate his interest in Hagel's seat than news broke that it was Kerrey who had recruited Norman Hsu, Hillary's infamous donor, for a seat on the New School board. Kerrey is hardly a Clinton ally. He ran against Bill Clinton in the '92 primaries and gave President Clinton fits, once leaving him to stew on a crucial budget vote while he ducked out to see "What's Love Got to Do With It." Kerrey would command an instant platform if he returned to the Senate, where he was known as a budget hawk, a breed largely absent in today's Washington. A Vietnam veteran and Medal of Honor winner who lost part of one leg in combat, he would also bring a much needed reality check about war to the debate, which surely must be part of his calculation in wanting to reclaim his seat.

For the time being, President Bush may have shored up his support in the Senate with his report to the nation about progress in Iraq, but his determination to leave 130,000 U.S. troops in Iraq beyond the '08 election has created an opening for a parade of prime-time Democrats. Of the seats up for re-election in '08, Republicans hold 22 while Democrats have 12 to defend. If Warner and Kerrey win, that would be two pickups for the Democrats. Late word that former New Hampshire governor Jeanne Shaheen will challenge Sen John Sununu makes that race competitive for the Democrats. Idaho will probably remain Republican, whatever happens to Larry Craig, but the GOP will be forced to spend money making sure they keep a seat that otherwise would have been safe. Republicans are in trouble everywhere from Maine to Alaska, and with the money flowing, and control of the White House within grasp, candidate recruitment for Schumer these days is a piece of cake.