Can Influencers Survive a TikTok Ban?

Amidst the looming possibility of a U.S. ban on the popular video-sharing app TikTok, influencers have found themselves grappling with the potential ramifications on their careers and livelihoods.

With 150 million users in the U.S., TikTok is the cornerstone of many influencers' online presence, a crucial avenue for audience engagement and a significant source of income. Fueled by concerns about national security risks, President Joe Biden has signed into law a bill that demands TikTok's parent company ByteDance sell its stake in the company or the app will be banned in the U.S.

"It's like a stab in the back," said Noah Jay Wood, @noahjaywood on TikTok, a content creator and actor with 7.2 million followers on the video sharing app.

"TikTok is the foundation of all of my social media platforms. So without TikTok, I would have never like grown on like Snapchat, Instagram, YouTube," he told Newsweek.

According to Influencity, a platform specializing in influencer marketing, the U.S. boasts an estimated 10 million influencers.

Increasingly, influencers are forging full-time careers in content creation. Goldman Sachs reports that the creator economy, encompassing such influencers, was estimated to be a $250 billion industry in 2023 and is projected to balloon to $480 billion by 2027.

For influencers, losing TikTok would entail far more than just a decline in followers and could deal a substantial blow to their livelihood.

"It would be extremely impactful for creators who make a majority of their income through TikTok," Jess Hunichen, co-founder of a global influencer talent management agency Shine Talent Group, told Newsweek. "There's no question that we would see some very immediate impact."

Through the TikTok Creator Rewards Program (formerly the Creativity Program Beta), creators can earn between $0.50 and $1 per 1,000 views. This means creators can earn between $500 and $1,000 per 1 million views. While this program can prove profitable for creators, there are plenty of caveats with eligibility, content types and what qualifies as a view.

This isn't the only way creators make money on the platform, though. Through branded and sponsored content, creators can make large sums working with brands. For example, TikToker Alex Ojeda, who has around 8.4 million followers, told Business Insider he charges $20,000 for a single sponsored video on the platform.

Like a Stab in the Back

"I understand why creators are worried about how this could affect their income," Harry Gestetner, co-founder of leading Gen Z creator platform Fanfix, told Newsweek.

Despite having large followings across a series of social platforms now, Wood explained that TikTok is the best place for him to keep up with the latest viral trends and gather inspiration. "Now I have to figure out which social media platform I have to like scroll on and find ideas," he said. "And that's super hard too because TikTok has the best algorithm out of all of them."

TikTok's algorithm shows videos depending on what it thinks a user would most like to see, in contrast to platforms that base what they show on social networks.

Maks Majewski has 2.8 million followers on TikTok for his handle @thatguymaks and makes videos on everything from Fortnite to pranking his parents.

"A TikTok ban would have a huge effect on me," he told Newsweek. "Even though I'm from the U.K., a large proportion of my followers are based in the U.S. which would basically more than halve my following and if the ban does go through."

"My income would be hit just due to TikTok being my largest and main platform," he added. "My main income is based from views and campaigns which would eliminate both if it does happen. If TikTok would get banned the only option would be to migrate onto another platform however TikTok was always the place that made me who I am today and it'll always feel like home. Not all platforms are as friendly as TikTok."

Daniel Sango Antonio, @doctorsango on TikTok, agreed. "TikTok is one of my main income sources," he told Newsweek. "Luckily for me, I've got other platforms I can rely on. But it would be nicer if TikTok sticks around."

Whether a TikTok ban will come into force in the U.S. is still unclear. The latest version of the bill gives TikTok 270 days to sell to another company, with provisions for additional 90-day extensions if "significant progress" is being made to sell TikTok.

Despite worry among many users, there is optimism among the experts who are confident that influencers will find a way to pivot in the event of a ban.

"In the short term, some creators would take a slight hit on brand deal income as brands reevaluate their influencer and creator marketing strategies. However, over the longer term, most of those ad dollars would just move to other platforms like Instagram," said Gestetner, who explained that at his business FanFix, they are encouraging influencers to ensure they build an audience among multiple platforms.

"There will be a technological shift here. And I think it's kind of akin to, say the internet or, you know, the rise of AI or iOS," said Gestetner. "I think that generally comes with a lot of worry. However, there's a huge amount of opportunity that comes out of that. I'm very bullish on the creator economy. I'm very excited about the creator economy. I think creators are very resilient."

Without TikTok, Hunichen predicts there will be a shift not just to other platforms, but to new forms of content too. "We'll see increases in sponsorships of Substacks or podcasts in a less traditional way," she theorized. "Podcasts have been very numbers-focused, so podcast partnerships may emulate collaborations or partnerships on TikTok and Instagram."

Updated on 05/01/2024 at 9:30 a.m. ET with additional detail on TikTok algorithm