Worldview: A Showdown In Ankara

Turkey suffers a political crisis once a decade or so. The showdown now looming, however, may not end as such confrontations have in the past, with Islam in retreat. The conflict is also highlighting a key question with repercussions throughout the Muslim world and the West: namely, what role should Islam play in political life?

Ten years ago the generals who guard Turkey's secular tradition overthrew a coalition government headed by an Islamic fundamentalist and banned his party. This time, however, the ruling party (known in Turkish as the AKP) is refusing to go gently into the night. True, it has bent in the face of military and judicial pressure by withdrawing the nomination of Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul for the presidency—a revered bastion of secular power. Yet the AKP has also contested the military's diktat by calling a general election. And it's in a strong position to do so: the party already enjoys a majority in Parliament and widespread popularity thanks to five years of effective rule, economic progress and political reform.

Another key difference between this crisis and past ones is that Turkey's economy has (so far) kept humming along; the lira has even risen in value. International markets have ignored the turmoil because of a consensus that no political party can reverse Turkey's reforms and its integration into the global economy.

Yet Turkey itself is increasingly divided. The secular establishment is deathly afraid of losing more power to the AKP, which draws much of its support from poor, pious Muslims. Secularists despise the party, and are sure that, given the opportunity, it would use the state to promote Islam in all aspects of Turkish life.

I was confronted by such attitudes on a recent trip. One friend, a professor, insisted, "You simply miss the increasing pressures that religious elements are impinging on our daily existence." He and others cited a mass of anecdotal evidence: their children are being harassed, liquor is getting harder to come by, religion has become the key to promotion in public institutions, and many parts of Istanbul now look more and more like the Middle East—boys and girls separated in many public places and women covered from head to foot. "Is this what Ataturk fought for?" I heard over and over. A prominent mathematician said: "You Americans believe in moderate Islam. There is no such thing."

Many secularists do not like the idea of military intervention in politics. But they claim that the choice between secularism and democracy is a false one: only the former can safeguard the latter. If forced to choose between the military and the AKP, I suspect most would choose the military.

AKP leaders insist theirs is not a religious party, pointing out that they're devoted to the EU and haven't taken any formal steps to Islamicize Turkey. The issue for them is religious freedom: Turks should be free to express any religious sentiment, even if that means wearing headscarves in public schools. As the crisis grows, the AKP has exercised restraint: after huge recent secular protests against the government, the AKP, which could orchestrate even larger counterdemonstrations, refused to reciprocate.

Still, the mood is tense as the election approaches. There has been a bomb attack in downtown Ankara, talk of banning the AKP and demands for military intervention in northern Iraq. Many Turks hope for a fair vote that returns the AKP to office but without a majority, since the necessities of coalition government would restrain it, including in its choice of president. If, however, the AKP again wins a majority, troubles could multiply. Will the military allow an AKP-controlled parliament able to elect its own president, something the generals have fought hard to prevent? Raising the stakes higher is an AKP-sponsored constitutional amendment for direct presidential elections.

As all this suggests, the Turkish republic faces a defining moment. Can it remain free, democratic and pious at the same time, while deepening its place in the Western firmament? The answer will resonate throughout the region. Middle Eastern democrats fear that a soft coup to remove the AKP would send the message that religious parties have no role in a democracy. Europe is also watching closely, and further military intervention could end Turkey's bid to join the EU. Worse, it would deepen the country's division. Finding a consensus grows harder by the day as passions mount.