Why US Strikes in Yemen May Not Work

The retaliatory strikes launched by United States and British militaries against Yemen's Houthis on Thursday won't act as deterrence for the Iranian-backed group, experts have told Newsweek, but instead are likely to escalate the war in the Middle East.

On the night between January 11 and 12, American fighters and vessels attacked 60 Houthi targets at 16 sites in Yemen with the support of the British military, the U.S. Air Force Mideast command said.

According to U.S. President Joe Biden, the strikes followed several warnings that Houthi rebels would suffer the consequences of their ceaseless attacks against cargo ships in the Red Sea and were meant to signal that the country and its allies "will not tolerate" similar actions.

"I will not hesitate to direct further measures to protect our people and the free flow of international commerce as necessary," Biden said in a statement released on Friday.

It was the first time that the U.S. military responded to the growing campaign of drone and missile attacks on commercial ships that the Houthis launched after the beginning of Israel's war with Hamas. Israel's combat operations have led to the deaths of over 20,000 Palestinians in Gaza since then, most of them women and children, according to the Gaza Health Ministry.

The Houthis' reaction to the strikes was defiant, with the group's deputy information secretary telling Newsweek that they'll respond with "all force and determination" to any strike against them.

Will the Strikes Act as Deterrence?

Farea Al-Muslimi, a research fellow in the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House in the United Kingdom said the strikes are mostly symbolic as the areas targeted by the U.S. and the U.K. are "only peanuts in the wider context of Houthi weapons and military capabilities—especially their maritime weapons."

The Yemeni rebels, he told Newsweek, "are savvier, more prepared, and more equipped than anyone is really acknowledging." The Houthis have missiles and weapons and technology that make U.S. military bases in the Gulf very possible to reach, according to Al-Muslimi.

The Yemeni-born writer and researcher said that the strikes will not stop the Houthis from further attacks in the Red Sea.

"If anything, rather the opposite," he said. "They will likely expand their attacks to U.S. and U.K. ships and bases across the Arabian Peninsula."

Fawaz A. Gerges, professor in Middle Eastern politics and International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science, agreed, saying the strikes will not stop the Houthis from attacking shipping in the Red Sea but instead lead to a certain escalation.

What Would an Escalation of the Conflict Look Like?

"The Biden administration keeps saying that it does not want the conflict to escalate beyond Gaza, but the conflict has escalated and is escalating," Gerges told Newsweek.

"What we have now is a low-intensity conflict which has the potential to escalate into an all-out regional conflict," the professor said—something that Biden doesn't want, as a war with Iran would be "unimaginable" and bad for the Democrats in an election year.

Gerges said that the Houthis have "a very potent capacity" to mine the Red Sea, and the U.S. knows this.

"When the dust settles on the strikes, you're going to see escalation on the part of the Houthis, who might mine the naval and commercial lanes in the Red Sea," he said. The question is what the U.S. might do then.

"The Biden administration keeps saying that they don't want the conflict in Gaza to expand," he told Newsweek. "This has been a consistent goal of the Biden administration. Yet the conflict in Gaza has expanded and is expanding. And the U.S. is finding itself steadily engaged and embroiled in the conflict on multiple levels," he added.

In this situation, the Biden administration had to act in response to the Yemeni group's attacks in the Red Sea but was reluctant to do so because it's aware, thanks to U.S. intelligence, that the Houthis are not willing to stand down unless there is a ceasefire in Gaza.

"In the next few days, the next few weeks, the Houthis, with the support of Iran, will escalate their attacks on the shipping lanes in the Red Sea," Gerges said.

The only way to avoid the conflict escalating to the regional level would be for the Biden administration to support a ceasefire in Gaza. "And this is what the administration does not really want to do," he said. "It wants to have its cake and eat it too."

Al-Muslimi said that an escalation of the conflict would also complicate the long-awaited efforts by the United Nations to resume its peace process in Yemen.

"This unprecedented step of regionalizing the Yemen war is only going to make this job even harder," he said. "Saudi Arabia has tried its best to stay out of the conflict but nevertheless played the first line of defense for Israel against Houthi attacks in recent months by taking down some Houthi rockets."

The strikes will also have a tremendous impact on food security and goods in Yemen. "A nightmare situation will only get worse," Al-Muslimi said.

The reactions of other countries to a possible escalation of the conflict are less certain.

"It is not clear how Iran will respond, but it definitely prefers to keep the Houthis as useful scapegoat allies while trying to save the Joker Card it has: Hezbollah," he said.

"Since October 7, the Iranians have been mostly content to observe from a distance. While some think that China would also be happy to watch the West dragging itself into another bloody conflict, they have actually been suffering too from the disruption to the vital trade relying on the Red Sea routes just as much as the West," he added.

"Similarly, Arab countries like Egypt are conflicted and tied by a need to stand up to the Houthis whilst not wanting to stay silent on Israel and U.S.'s stance on Gaza."