Who Biden Might Give Putin in Exchange for Paul Whelan

The U.S. State Department has made a "serious" offer to Russia for a prisoner swap involving Paul Whelan after the former Marine reportedly warned that a "target" has been painted on his back since being left out of past swaps.

President Joe Biden has previously been criticized for his choice of Russian prisoners in the U.S. given in exchange for the release of U.S. prisoners in Russia. Any prisoners that the Biden administration may choose to release in exchange for Whelan are likely to come under the same scrutiny.

Whelan has been jailed in Moscow since being arrested in December 2018. He was convicted of espionage and sentenced to 16 years in prison. Both Whelan and the Biden administration have denied that he was involved in espionage, and the State Department claims that he is being wrongfully detained.

High-profile U.S.-Russia prisoner exchanges last year secured the releases of former Marine Trevor Reed and WNBA player Brittney Griner. According to a CNN interview published on Tuesday, Whelan told Blinken during an August phone call that not being included in the exchanges amounted to "a death warrant."

A spokesperson for the State Department said in a statement emailed to Newsweek on Tuesday that Blinken was "committed" to arranging Whelan's release and announced that a "a serious proposal" had been given to Russia.

"Secretary Blinken remains committed to bringing Paul home," the spokesperson said. "The United States has been clear that Russia's wrongful detention of Paul Whelan is outrageous and he should be immediately set free."

"We offered Russia a serious proposal for Paul's release and will not stop working on his case until he is reunited with his family," they added.

While additional details on the proposal are unclear, including when the offer was made, Whelan's attorney told Russian state-run news agency RIA Novosti on Tuesday that the negotiations were "a work in progress," according to The Moscow Times.

Reed and Griner were sent home in exchange for two high-profile Russians detained in the U.S., notorious arms dealer Viktor Bout and Konstantin Yaroshenko, a pilot who had been serving a prison sentence following a conviction on drug trafficking charges.

A deal for Whelan would almost certainly also require the release of a Russian prisoner that Moscow considers to be of high value. A few prisoners stand out as likely targets.

The Wall Street Journal reported last month that Russian President Vladimir Putin has asked for assassin Vadim Krasikov to be released as part of a high-profile prisoner exchange, possibly involving Whelan.

However, Krasikov is currently imprisoned in Germany over a 2019 killing in Berlin and it is unclear whether the U.S. could negotiate his extradition.

Suspected Russian intelligence agent Vadim Konoshchenok, indicted earlier this year over allegations that he was a key member of a global smuggling and money laundering operation for the Russian government, could also fit the bill. Konoshchenok is currently being detained in the U.S.

Whelan is not the only U.S. citizen imprisoned in Russia who could potentially be released via prisoner swap. Kremlin officials said in July that Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, who has been jailed on espionage charges since March, could possibly be released as part of an exchange.

Vladimir Dunaev, a Russian jailed in the U.S. on cybercrime charges, was specifically mentioned by Moscow as a potential prisoner to be exchanged for Gershkovich, according to the Associated Press.

Dunaev could also potentially be released to Russia in exchange for Whelan, or he could be one of two prisoners used in a hypothetical double swap for Gershkovich and Whelan.

Whelan had reportedly initially been included as part of an exchange involving Griner, Bout and an unnamed second Russian prisoner last year, with Putin pulling the plug on the double swap at the last minute over concerns that he would be handing Biden a "victory."