Where Will There Be A White Christmas?

Like Bing Crosby, many of us are dreaming of a white Christmas. But how likely is it that our dreams will come true on December 25?

A white Christmas is defined by forecasters as a December 25 morning with 1 inch of snow on the ground, even if the white stuff fell in the preceding days.

Americans living in the northern states or the higher areas and mountainous regions in the western states are the most likely to enjoy a snowy Christmas morning.

But last December, Christmas 2021, was the warmest on record in the U.S. Experts from the National Centers for Environmental Information, revealed the average contiguous U.S. temperature was 39.3 F, which is 6.7 F above the average for the 20th century. These stats made the month the warmest on record.

The year before that, Christmas 2020, saw the second least expansive snow cover since 2012, with just 26.5 percent of the Lower 48 celebrating a white Christmas.

Some experts have suggested climate change may be responsible for decreasing the chances of waking up to a snowy morning on Christmas Day. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a government agency, said "the spatial fingerprints of climate change that we'd expect based on our modeling studies are visible in national patterns of change in temperature and precipitation." And the report into white Christmases, published earlier this month, added: "So, it's not surprising that there are some subtle differences between the 1981-2010 version of the white Christmas map and the 1991-2020 version that are consistent with the reality of long-term warming. More areas experienced decreases in their chances of a white Christmas than experienced increases." More research, along with comparisons to other climate data, was needed to draw conclusions, the report said.

So what effect, if any, will last year's relatively warm Christmas have on this year's festivities?

The NOAA has created a map of the U.S. showing each area's likelihood of seeing at least 1 inch of snow to make it a white Christmas. The color-coded map shows some parts of states colored white, meaning there is a 100 percent probability of snow on December 25, while other areas are colored blue for 50 percent, or grey for a 0 percent chance.

Details provided below the map read: "Minnesota. Maine. Upstate New York. The Allegheny Mountains of Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Practically anywhere in Idaho. And of course, the Rockies or the Sierra Nevada Mountains. These are the parts of the United States where weather history suggests you want to be if you're looking for the best chance of a white Christmas."

Southern states, such as Louisiana, and southern coastal ones, such as parts of California and the whole of Florida, should not hold their breath for snow, according to the probability map. As the NOAA's chart makes clear: "Darkest gray shows places where the probability is less than 10 percent. (Sorry West Coast, Gulf Coast, Deep South!)"

Texas also sits firmly in the dark gray area, meaning it's typically given just a 0 percent chance of seeing snow at Christmas.

But this year, all bets may be off, as an incoming arctic blast forecast to hit this week has sparked fears about how the state's power grid will cope. Houston looks set to see its coldest Christmas for 39 years, with temperatures plunging to 29 F, while other parts of the state, such as Dallas-Fort Worth could see the mercury drop below 20 F.

There has been some wild, unsettled weather across the U.S. recently, with wintry storms cutting across the center of the country last week. Elsewhere, a rare "freezing fog" was blamed for a highway pile-up in Washington earlier this month.

And as snowstorms have rolled in, it's thought much of the U.S. will indeed see a white Christmas, or at the very least a bitterly chilly one. Florida and Georgia seem set to be shivering in the 20s, while an artic front is due to batter the east of the country.

The National Weather Service is predicting a "major storm system" will barrel across the central U.S. all the way to the eastern seaboard at the weekend, which is when Christmas Day falls. Americans are advised to check their local weather reports regularly for the most updated forecasts.

Update 12/19/22, 6:51 a.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.