Ukraine's armed forces are running out of time to secure battle-ready Leopard 2 tanks ahead of a predicted Russian offensive in the spring, Newsweek has been told.
Kyiv has long called for the German-made main battle tanks used by many armies across Europe. The Ukrainian government reiterated that message in a pointed Twitter post on Tuesday, urging its allies to "send your tanks to Ukraine now so you don't have to deal with Russian tanks later."
After France announced it would send AMX 10-RC light tanks to Ukraine, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was the first Western leader to offer up main battle tanks to Kyiv.
The U.K. will send 14 Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine's front lines, his office confirmed, in what Downing Street called a show of "the U.K.'s ambition to intensify support."
British Conservative Member of Parliament Tobias Ellwood, who heads up the House of Commons' Defence Select Committee, said following the announcement that Moscow was hoping for Western hesitancy in announcing aid of this type.
On January 11, Poland's government said they would send a company of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine as part of an "international coalition." A company typically means 14 tanks.
But the export license for the Leopard 2 is held by Germany, meaning other nations cannot authorize shipments of the tanks without Berlin's consent. Germany has so far been reluctant to commit to sending what many military experts believe is the most appropriate choice of main battle tanks for Ukraine's armed forces.
However, as the defense ministers of Western countries backing Ukraine's war effort head for the U.S.'s Ramstein base in Germany on Friday, the clock is ticking on just how much of a difference the Leopard 2 tanks could make for Kyiv, according to leading military and defense analyst Professor Michael Clarke.
He told Newsweek that "time is of the essence" for sending any type of main battle tank, although the Leopard 2 is the top choice. Even if a nation or nations agree to provide the tanks, there would be a delay before they arrived on Ukrainian soil, and crews would need to be trained, Clarke stressed.
"So we are not talking about Ukraine having these tanks available next week or the week after," he added, which becomes all the more important after reports of renewed Russian efforts in the coming months.
"If we don't take the decisions now, they won't be in theater when they're needed, which is when the winter starts to ease, and the Russians will certainly be coming in with a big spring offensive," said Clarke.
"The Ukrainians have either got to meet that offensive or even go first with their own offensive and throw the Russians off-balance," he said.
And Ukraine would need at least 100 Leopard 2 tanks in, for example, two armored battle groups, to make a real strategic difference, he argued.
However, Nick Reynolds, research analyst of land warfare at the U.K.'s Royal United Services Institute think tank, previously told Newsweek even double-digit deliveries would be an asset to Kyiv.
The Ukrainians will need to be benefiting from them in 10 weeks from now, Clarke suggested, or before the end of April at the latest.
Ukraine needs Leopard 2 tanks "as soon as possible," agreed military vehicle historian and tank expert Nicholas Moran.
"It'll still take time to train the mechanics and the crews on how to run it and keep it running, and every day that Ukraine is denied these pieces of equipment, the less they can avail of the advantages they provide," he told Newsweek via email.
"With respect to armored targets, anything Leopard 2 shoots at with modern ammunition will probably be killed," he added.
The upcoming Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting at Ramstein Air Base follows a deadly Russian strike on an apartment block in the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro.
Retired U.S. Lieutenant General Ben Hodges told Newsweek this may influence the outcome of Friday's meeting, which will be the first for Germany's new defense minister, Boris Pistorius.
"For me, the more important thing will be releasing the other countries to hand over their Leopards—that will be bigger numbers, and it will happen a lot faster," Hodges said.
"Nobody has to give huge numbers," Clarke previously commented, because "there are so many Leopard 2 [tanks] around in Europe, that if everybody gave 20, [then] five or six nations could give the Ukrainians what they need."
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Ellie Cook is a Newsweek security and defense reporter based in London, U.K. Her work focuses largely on the Russia-Ukraine ... Read more
