In recent weeks, a chorus of conservative media personalities and Trump campaign surrogates have emerged to assure us the former president is poised to secure an unprecedented 20 percent of the Black vote in a rematch against President Biden next year. Such a performance would be a modern-day achievement for the Republican Party. But the chances of it happening are slim to none.
The most glaring problem with the extravagant claim is that it hinges on a poll with fewer than 150 black respondents and a 9.5 percent margin of error on this data point. As pollsters, we must be careful when taking the pulse of the Black community, because the African Americans who are most likely to participate in surveys and online panels are suburban voters with daytime work hours who tend to be less loyal to the Democratic Party than their urban counterparts.
Republicans should resist the temptation of placing too much stock in overly optimistic predictions about improvements with minority voters. After all, we've seen this before. In the lead-up to the 2020 election, an Emerson poll suggested that Trump was poised to win one out of every five Black voters, only to secure a mere 8 percent of the Black vote that year. Nor was 2020 the first time some polls have overstated Black support for Republicans. The issue is well-known to pollsters conducting research in states with large numbers of Black voters.
Similarly, throughout much of last year, a litany of news articles predicted that Republicans were on the cusp of winning Hispanics. A June 2022 Quinnipiac poll even showed the GOP leading by three points among Latinos in the generic ballot. Yet in the end, although Republicans saw slight gains, Democrats still carried Hispanics by 21 points and won 93 percent of Black voters.
That is not to say that Black voters are satisfied with President Biden after they pretty much saved his 2020 primary campaign. But an Ipsos poll from earlier this year with a large Black sample found that while African Americans may not be enthusiastic about Biden, they still like him. Meanwhile, when Biden is pitted against Trump, eight out of 10 Black voters say they would never vote for Trump.
Additionally, the most recent polling from Civiqs with thousands of Black respondents shows only 7 percent of African Americans have a favorable view of the former president.
It may also be true that Biden is facing a potential turnout problem with Black voters, but this is precisely the kind of challenge a well-funded effort can address, especially one with a significant financial advantage over its rival. Trump's cash-strapped 2024 campaign would have limited resources to hold down the fort, let alone win over converts in expensive media markets.
So, why do some on the Right insist on peddling this pipe dream? Beyond the allure of clicks, this narrative distracts Republicans from far more compelling evidence showing Trump losing support among White voters.
Our team analyzed every poll with publicly available crosstabs featured in RealClearPolitics in the month of August. Seven out of the nine studies showed Trump performing well below his 2020 levels with White voters. An average of all nine polls found Trump's lead over Biden with White voters has shrunk from 17 points in 2020 to just 9 points now. Interestingly, the same Fox News poll Trump's surrogates push because they like its African American numbers has him up by just four points with Whites.
Upon closer examination, the data reveal that college-educated white men, in particular, are among those shifting away from Trump. This group was a key swing voting bloc in 2021 and 2022, and evidence is starting to point toward that trend continuing. There is also data showing Trump's grip over some White voters without college degrees has weakened.
Mathematically, it would be implausible for Trump to offset his losses with White voters with gains among Black voters, since the former outnumber the latter by a ratio of about 7 to 1. For every one percentage point Trump loses among Whites, he would need seven percentage points among Blacks just to break even—a daunting task.
Further erosion of White voters, particularly among those without degrees, would be catastrophic for Republicans, especially in battleground states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, whose electorates are significantly whiter than the national average. Even if Trump were to achieve more realistic improvements among African Americans and Hispanics, Biden would have a clear path to re-election if Trump's standing with Whites significantly deteriorates, as most polls suggest it has.
History offers a stark reminder of what Republicans can expect if Trump were to only win Whites by 9 points. In 2008, John McCain won White voters by 12, and still lost in a landslide while Democrats clinched 21 House seats.
Hemorrhaging white voters, while counting on a common polling mirage to produce a miraculous wave of Black support, is a recipe for disaster for the Republican Party in 2024.
Bryon Allen, PhD is a partner at Republican polling firm WPA Intelligence.
Amanda Iovino is a principal at the firm.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
