Tropical Storm Philippe Map, Path Tracker Shows Potential Landfall

Tropical Storm Philippe is forecast to possibly slam into New England and Canada later in the week after it began heading northwards.

The storm sideswiped the Leeward Islands with heavy rain, including Antigua and Barbuda, before moving slowly to the north.

A forecast path map by the National Hurricane Center shows that the storm may hit the East Coast by Sunday or Monday, somewhere between Maine, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.

"At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 65.5 West," the National Hurricane Center said in a public advisory on Wednesday morning. "Philippe is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (miles per hour). A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast later today, followed by a faster motion toward the north on Thursday and Friday."

The storm is due to pass Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, then approach Bermuda Thursday night and Friday.

While the forecast may put Philippe as heading towards New England, the storm's path may still change in the coming days, as storms can suddenly change direction due to the winds that they move into. Forecast paths are calculated using models based on current weather, which may change drastically with time.

"The path of a storm or hurricane is predicted by numerical prediction weather models, which are computer simulations of the atmosphere," Haiyan Jiang, a professor of Earth and environment at Florida International University, told Newsweek.

"The models use an analysis of the current weather as a starting point and then project the state of the atmosphere in the future. There are many numerical models for hurricane prediction currently. Forecasters made predictions based on the outputs of these models. The track/path prediction of tropical storms or hurricanes is more accurate than the intensity prediction of these storms."

Philippe is currently still a tropical storm, but the NHC suggests there is some possibility of upgrading to a hurricane in the coming days.

"Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, but some gradual intensification could occur after that time," the advisory said.

If wind speeds reach 74 mph, a storm is reclassified as a hurricane. Category 1 hurricanes have wind speeds between 74 and 95 mph, Category 2 between 96 and 110 mph, Category 3 between 111 and 129 mph, Category 4 between 130 mph and 156 mph, while Category 5 hurricanes are 157 mph and over.

"When the surface wind speed reached 34 kts (39 mph), we name a storm," Jiang said.

If Philippe does make landfall, it could cause heavy rain and storm surges, leading to flooding and property damage, as the storms and hurricanes preceding it have done throughout this year's hurricane season. As it passes the Virgin Islands, 4 to 8 inches of rain are forecast, while Puerto Rico is forecast to receive 2 to 4 inches.

It is feared that the effects of climate change may make the impacts of hurricanes worse.

"Climate change is clearly increasing the upper limit on hurricane strength and rain rate due to both the increasing temperature of the ocean, which provides the energy for the storms, and the increasing temperature of the atmosphere, which allows for more intense rain," Mathew Barlow, a professor of environmental earth and atmospheric sciences at the University of Massachusetts-Lowell, previously told Newsweek.

"Additionally, the warming increases average sea levels and so makes storm surge worse. Other aspects are less clear, including possible increases or decreases in the overall number of hurricanes in a year, although we do expect the proportion of hurricanes that are major storms to increase."

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