The Bulletin
World in Brief
Welcome to the Bulletin,
- Donald Trump: The former president's recent remarks on abortion that have angered some evangelical Christians are unlikely to cost him their votes in November's presidential election, according to a number of experts.
- Kristi Noem: The South Dakota Governor has been banned by a third Native American tribe from visiting its reservation following her accusations that Mexican drug cartels are facilitating crime on Indigenous land in her state.
- Kamala Harris: The Vice President is laying the blame for the revival of Arizona's 160-year-old abortion ban squarely at the feet of Donald Trump, accusing the ex-president of "gaslighting" over the issue.
- Climate change: Millions of families could be hit hard as water levels rise in the Great Lakes, potentially washing away homes and jobs in the surrounding areas. Scientists have now created an interactive map that shows how parts of Illinois may be swallowed up by Lake Michigan.
- Australia: At least five people have been killed in a stabbing attack at a shopping center in Sydney. Eight people, including a nine-month-old child, were rushed to hospital with injuries. The suspect was subsequently shot dead by police officers.
- Ukraine war: Kyiv may be set to receive prototypes of the United Kingdom's powerful "DragonFire" high-power laser weapon, as it remains on the defensive more than two years into Russia's invasion.
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Is Biden the Favorite Now?
President Joe Biden appears to be improving his chances of winning the 2024 election. He is predicted to win the popular vote in eight of the 12 most recent polls added to the RacetotheWH website, which tracks average polling.
Why it matters: In the most recent of these polls by Reuters and Ipsos, the Democrat is expected to garner 41% of the vote share compared to Trump's 37%. Online prediction platform Polymarket, where users bet on world events, has also seen Biden's chances of victory improve substantially against Trump, though he remains the slight underdog.
Read more in-depth coverage:
Joe Biden is Now Beating Donald Trump in the Majority of Polls
Biden's Criticism of Israel Ignites Backlash From Republicans
Donald Trump's Hopes of Black Support Stung by New Poll
TL/DR: Some polls have suggested Biden's chances of winning the election have increased.
What happens now? The election will take place on November 5. Speaking to Newsweek, experts said the margins were tight, and it was too early to tell whether Biden would win in November. "I think the Biden campaign shouldn't be popping any champagne corks just yet,” Thomas Whalen, an associate professor who teaches U.S. politics at Boston University, said.
Deeper reading Is Joe Biden the Favorite Now?
The Problem With Trump's Ukraine Plan
Former President Donald Trump has made no secret of his intention to end Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine as quickly as possible if he wins a second term in the White House later this year.
Why it matters: The Washington Post cited unnamed sources with knowledge of the matter in its report this week that Trump, if elected in November, will push Ukraine to permanently cede the occupied Crimean Peninsula—seized by Russia in 2014—and the entire eastern Donbas region consisting of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts to Moscow in exchange for a peace deal. For President Volodymyr Zelensky and his compatriots—most of whom back the government's official intention to liberate all land per Ukraine's 1991 borders and join NATO—a Trump return could prove disastrous.
Read more in-depth coverage:
Putin's Kremlin Responds to Donald Trump's Ukraine Peace Plan
Trump's RNC Chair Includes Ukraine in List of US Adversaries
NATO May Have Solved Its Trump Problem
TL/DR: The former president has repeatedly signaled he wants Ukraine to pay a price for peace, but will that satisfy Russia?
What happens now? It is still widely believed that Putin would prefer a second term Trump than a second term Biden, though the Russian leader has publicly claimed he would prefer the latter. Moscow, meanwhile, wants Ukraine out of the equation. Regardless, more fighting is likely to precede Kyiv's concessions.
Deeper reading The Problem With Donald Trump's Ukraine Plan
Democrat Warns Party About Making 'Big Mistake' on the Border
Chris Murphy of Connecticut believes his party must correct course on how it communicates with Americans about the U.S.-Mexico border challenge or risk ceding the issue to Republicans as the November election nears.
Why it matters: Murphy was instrumental in forging a bipartisan agreement aimed at overhauling the U.S. asylum system, addressing the backlog in immigration courts, and strengthening border security. Despite these efforts, he worries that his party has not sufficiently emphasized these achievements to resonate deeply with voters. This concern is reflected in polling data from Punchbowl News, where 33 percent of respondents indicated they would not support a candidate who diverged from their immigration views. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump continues prioritizing border security in his campaign.
Read more in-depth coverage:
Democrats Believe They're Winning the Border War
Joe Biden Faces Growing Democrat Fury Over Border Crisis
Greg Abbott Breaks With Donald Trump on Border Plan
TL/DR: U.S. Customs and Border Protection has seen a record number of crossings under Biden's tenure, with encounters between the agency and migrants clocking in at 1.15 million in the financial year 2024 alone.
What happens now? Republicans expect voters to blame Democrats and overlook GOP opposition to a bipartisan deal. Sen. Gary Peters of Michigan, chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, emphasizes the need for voters to recognize the Republicans' rejection of the agreement. He urges Democrats to highlight this narrative as they strive to maintain control of the Senate in the upcoming November elections.
Deeper reading Democrat Warns Party About Making 'Big Mistake' on the Border
Republican Predicts Biden Will Use 'Off the Rails' Special Counsel Report
A Ukrainian partisan movement operating in the occupied south of the country has reported mass desertions by Russian forces there, with Moscow's troops refusing to carry out combat missions.
Why it matters: The Atesh—meaning "fire" in Crimean Tartar—movement has been operating in the southern Kherson region during Russia's full-scale invasion; it began in February 2022 and saw much of the southern portion of the country quickly occupied. Atesh gathers information on local Russian operations for Ukrainian intelligence and military forces while organizing local resistance. The group has also claimed the killing of multiple Russian and local allied troops. Atesh wrote on its Telegram channel on Thursday: "Russian soldiers are disappearing en masse in the Kherson region."
Read more in-depth coverage:
Russian Soldier Complains of Losses in Belgorod: 'Total Mess'
Russia Lost Over 800 Vehicles in Ukraine in the Past Week: Kyiv
Russia Accuses UK of Overseeing 'Vast Majority' of Kyiv's Black Sea Attacks
TL/DR: Some soldiers in the southern Ukrainian region are refusing to follow orders, according to the Atesh partisan movement.
What happens now? Atesh reported that the Russian military is intensifying efforts to catch Ukrainian partisans providing information to military forces on Kyiv's side of the contact line, which, for more than a year, has been primarily demarcated by the Dnieper River—known as the Dnipro in Ukrainian. The southern Kherson region has seen little movement of the front since Ukraine's major victory there in the fall of 2022.
Deeper reading Russian Troops 'Disappearing En Masse' in Kherson: Resistance Group
A Warning From Syria as Middle East Braces for Iran's Revenge on Israel
Syria has issued a warning to both Israel and the United States at a time when the Middle East is bracing for Iran's promised retaliation after an alleged Israeli attack on Tehran's embassy complex in Damascus.
Why it matters: With the regional tensions already flaring over the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip, the Syrian Mission to the United Nations conveyed to Newsweek the country's "condemnation in the strongest terms of the Israeli attack that targeted the Iranian consulate building in Damascus." The mission further called out the U.S. for the support it has shown and provided to its ally. They denounce Israel's history of violence and claim it as the primary source of unrest in the region.
Read more in-depth coverage:
US Troops Face 'Constant Threat' as Iran Vows Revenge on Israel for Attack
Iran Warns Israel Has Gone Too Far This Time
Iran Warns of 'Decisive Response' Against Israel After Syria Embassy Strike
TL/DR: Syrian officials told Newsweek that Israel is "the primary source of regional unrest" and condemned the U.S. for supporting it.
What happens now? While Washington has called on other countries to urge Iran not to carry out a military response against Israel, already in the throes of a multi-front war, Syria has implored the international community to exert further pressure on Israel amid mounting criticism of its handling of the conflict in Gaza.
Deeper reading A Warning From Syria as Middle East Braces for Iran's Revenge on Israel
IRS Issues Warning as Tax Deadline Looms
The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has issued its final warning to taxpayers ahead of next week's tax filing deadline.
As part of its annual "Dirty Dozen" fraud prevention campaign, the IRS has warned of bogus tax avoidance strategies and schemes with an international element that could impact taxpayers, businesses and professionals as the April 15 filing deadline is days away. The latest warning reminds taxpayers to be vigilant of fraudsters playing tricks on taxpayers, inviting them to use too-good-to-be-true schemes that could land them in serious trouble with the IRS while criminals make money off them.
The IRS highlighted two bogus tax avoidance strategies sometimes used by fraudsters: syndicated conservation easements and micro-captive insurance arrangements.
