Texas Secessionists Appear to Change Their Policy

A campaign group pushing for Texas to leave the United States and become a fully independent nation has suggested the Lone Star State wouldn't have to take a share of America's national debt if it secedes from the Union.

The claim was made by the Texas Nationalist Movement (TNM) in a post on X, formerly Twitter, appearing to contradict its previous claim that "when Texas leaves, it will have to take its share of the national debt with it" though it admitted disputes over what this figure is "will be exceptionally heated."

It comes amid growing concern over the size of the U.S. national debt which currently stands at around $34.5 trillion. During a recent interview with The Financial Times, Phillip Swagel, director of the Congressional Budget Office, warned U.S. debt is on an "unprecedented trajectory" and warned this could trigger a "market reaction."

On Sunday, in a post on its official X account, the TNM said: "The only viable solution to the national debt is to #TEXIT and wash our hands of it. We didn't accrue this debt, we shouldn't have to pay it."

However on its website the TNM says an independent Texas would have to pay "it's fair share" of the U.S. debt, though it also says the figure is likely to be bitterly contested and could even be $0.

In answer to the question "will Texas have to pay back a portion of the national debt" the TNM says: "When Texas leaves, it will have to take its share of the national debt with it."

It adds: "The negotiations over the national debt will win the prize for being the most contentious. After all, in any divorce, outside of custody battles over children, money is the most heated issue. This will be no different."

However in the article the TNM rejects the suggestion an independent Texas would take a share of the U.S. debt in proportion to its population, suggesting the state would counter that "we have paid substantially more into the federal system than we have gotten out of it for decades."

The TNM concedes that it is "customary" for a secessionist state to take a share of the national debt from the country it is leaving, but argues it is unclear how much this should be.

It writes: "As there is no established international law that would compel Texas to pay anything, it will most likely want to. It has been customary throughout the world that when a state secedes from a larger country or confederation that it voluntary accepts a portion of the national debt.

"This was the case with Singapore leaving Malaysia in 1965 and Bangladesh when it left Pakistan in 1971."

In conclusion the TNM writes: "The simple fact is that there is no easy way to predict how negotiations over the national debt will play out or if there can ever be consensus over the issue... For Texas to be successful on the other side of this issue, it must negotiate in good faith and must signal its willingness to pay its fair share of the national debt, even if that share is $0."

Speaking to Newsweek Daniel Miller, president of the TNM, insisted the group's position has not changed.

He said: "This is not a policy change for us. It is clear that we are under no obligation to accept any of the federal debt under international law and precedent. As a practical matter, Texas might want to accept some as part of a larger negotiation over other issues.

"However, it is still our contention that with those issues in play, any calculation would still leaving Texas owing zero."

In April Miller said the United States is "breaking apart" with a majority of the population ready to secede based on his interpretation of two recent surveys by the polling company YouGov.

A survey conducted exclusively for Newsweek in February found in a hypothetical independence referendum 23 percent of Texans would vote for the state to become "an independent country" against 67 percent who back remaining "a state within the United States."

Speaking to Newsweek in December Joshua Blank, a political scientist at the University of Texas at Austin, said he doesn't believe Texas could leave the U.S. peacefully.

He said: "I think history has made clear that there is no plausible scenario in which Texas could peacefully extract itself from the United States, even were that the will of its populous—which there is no indication of to my knowledge."

Update 05/06/24 11:00 a.m. ET: This story has been updated with comment from Texas Nationalist Movement president Daniel Miller.