The 2024 U.S. Senate elections map appears bleak for Democrats following Senator Joe Manchin's announcement that he would not seek reelection in West Virginia next year.
Manchin, who has often been described as a conservative or moderate Democrat, has represented the deep red state in the Senate since 2010 and his decision not to run again means his party faces the prospect of losing the seat to a Republican.
The senator's decision adds further pressure to Democrats who are likely to struggle to retain control of the Senate next year as they are confronted with a difficult election. The party has a slim majority in the Senate of 51 seats to Republicans' 49.
Six Democratic senators are facing reelection in states that former President Donald Trump won at least once in the last two presidential elections—including the crucial swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Trump remains the frontrunner for the Republican Party's 2024 presidential nomination, while President Joe Biden is once again seeking the Democratic nomination.
There are no Republican senators facing reelection in states that Trump lost in either of the last two presidential elections.
In 2016, all 34 Senate races were won by the same party that won the presidency in that state. In 2020, it was 34 out of 35 states.
It remains to be seen what effect another presidential election pitting Biden against Trump will have on down ballot races, but Democrats' prospects appear bleak.
Here is a breakdown of key states on the 2024 Senate map where Democratic incumbents could be vulnerable. It is important to note that candidates have not yet been formally selected but several incumbents have announced their intention to run again.
David Bergstein, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) communications director, told Newsweek in a statement on Friday: "Democrats have multiple pathways to protect and strengthen our Senate majority and are in a strong position to achieve this goal."
"In addition to defending our battle-tested incumbents, we've already expanded the battleground map to Texas and Florida, where formidable Democratic candidates are out-raising unpopular Republican incumbents and the DSCC is making investments to lay the groundwork for our campaigns' victories," Bergstein said.
Arizona
Senator Kyrsten Sinema was elected as a Democrat in 2018 but left the party in December 2022. She has filed to run for reelection but it is not yet clear if she will run again.
Trump won Arizona in 2016 and Biden picked up the state in 2020, so both parties will be hoping to take Sinema's Senate seat in 2024. If Sinema chooses to run again, she could face both Republican and Democratic opponents, which would further complicate Democrats' hopes of regaining the seat.
Michigan
The crucial swing state of Michigan helped to secure Trump's 2016 victory but flipped to Biden in 2020.
In the 2024 Senate race, Democrats will be hoping to keep the seat that's being vacated by Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow, who has announced her retirement.
Stabenow was reelected in 2018 with 52.3 percent of the vote and Republicans could see an opportunity to replace her.
Montana
Traditionally a red state, voters in Montana backed former President Trump in 2016 and 2020 but the incumbent Democrat, Senator Jon Tester, is seeking reelection in 2024.
Like Manchin, Tester is often considered a moderate. The three-term senator is seeking a fourth term after narrowly winning reelection in 2018 with 50.3 percent of the vote.
Next year will be the first time Tester is running for the Senate at the same time as Trump is seeking the White House, if he is the GOP nominee.
Ohio
Once considered a swing state and a bellwether for presidential elections, in recent years Ohio has been solidly Republican. Voters in the state opted for Trump in 2016 and 2020.
However, Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is seeking a fourth term in 2024 after he was reelected in 2018 with 53.4 percent of the vote in the increasingly red state.
Like Tester in Montana, next year will be the first time Brown is running for the Senate while Trump is seeking the presidency, if the former president is the GOP nominee.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is another crucial swing state that Trump won in 2016 and Biden flipped in 2020. It is likely to be an essential pickup in next year's presidential election.
Democratic Senator Bob Casey is seeking a fourth term after being reelected in 2018 with 55.7 percent of the vote.
Republicans are likely to focus heavily on Pennsylvania in order to build a winning combination to reach 270 Electoral College votes and that could draw greater attention to the Senate race.
Casey faces the prospect of running a reelection campaign amid what will likely be Trump's aggressive presidential campaign in the state.
West Virginia
West Virginia backed Trump in 2016 and 2020 and there is little prospect of the state voting for a Democratic presidential candidate next year.
However, Manchin's electoral success in the state has provided Democrats with a crucial vote in the Senate—and seen Manchin often hold the balance of power.
The Democrat won reelection in 2018 with 49.6 percent of the vote.
With Manchin's decision not to seek reelection, it seems likely that West Virginia could be a GOP pickup in 2024.
West Virginia's Republican Governor Jim Justice is running and with Manchin out of the race, his chances of winning may have grown.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin is the third swing state that was essential to Trump's 2016 victory but was then won by Biden in 2020. Like Michigan and Pennsylvania, winning in Wisconsin will be seen as crucial for both parties.
Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin is up for reelection in 2024 and she'll be seeking a third term. Baldwin was reelected in 2018 with 55.4 percent of the vote.
Wisconsin is almost certain to be a major focus of the presidential campaigns.
Update 11/10/23, 9:17 a.m. ET: This article was updated to include a statement from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Darragh Roche is a U.S. News Reporter based in Limerick, Ireland. His focus is reporting on U.S. politics. He has ... Read more
