Now that the GOP primaries have effectively guaranteed Donald Trump will be the victor, it might be easy for the former president's supporters to visualize all their political dreams coming true in November. Granted, for many conservatives, a second Trump presidency probably sounds like paradise compared to what President Joe Biden has put the country through. On the surface at least, it's easy to see why many expect it would be far better than another term of disastrous Democratic policies.
Of course, there are a couple of major issues with expecting a second Trump term to be a paradise. First, it's probably not going to happen. Recent polls notwithstanding, Trump will likely lose to whoever the Democrats put out there, whether it's Joe Biden, Joe Biden's corpse, Gavin Newsom, Michelle Obama, or an eggplant. No, the odds aren't zero, but they're as close to zero as anything in politics could be, and a felony conviction at any point before the election would put the final nail in the coffin of Trump's White House ambitions.
Like it or not, the GOP is about to make the most disliked politician in the country and perhaps the only major Republican who would lose to Joe Biden its standard bearer yet again. What could possibly go wrong?
Second, even if hell does freeze over and Trump occupies the White House for another term, we will likely not experience the bed of roses his influencers and supporters claim his second term will be. You thought the first four years were wild? Mix in the adjudication of 91 different felony charges across four different jurisdictions along with various civil trials related both to Trump's personal and business affairs. It would be a never-ending circus, and critical media outlets will lap up anything they can.
Trump would, of course, continue saying and doing things that whittle away at his base of support, and the fact that he wouldn't need to run for reelection would only exacerbate his recklessness. Having him as the GOP's standard bearer will hurt Republican candidates in every election going forward. Sure, every midterm tends to be bad for incumbents, but 2026 with Trump as president would almost certainly guarantee a Democratic House and Senate along with the continued loss of state legislatures and governorships across the country. Even assuming the GOP picks up the Senate this cycle in what should be one of the most favorable maps it's seen in a long time, that means only two years of decent judiciary appointees at best, at least partially undermining one of the best arguments in Trump's favor.
And it only gets worse from there. Despite the assurances of Trump NFT designers and pro-Trump influencers on X who post AI-generated pictures of the ex-president as some sort of bodybuilding superhero, Father Time is undefeated. In the unlikely event that he wins, Trump would be 78 when he enters office, the same age Biden was on his inauguration day. To those paying attention, he is already showing visible signs of being an almost-octogenarian, and faculties tend to decline quickly for almost everyone at that age and beyond. We've all witnessed Biden's decline, and while it will certainly look different, Trump is by no means immune to the laws of nature.
Add to the mix the fact that Trump's already awful personnel choices would only be worse this time around. Qualified, competent people won't want to work for him for fear of getting fired and humiliated or simply being blacklisted for being associated with him. Given the former president's recent history, it would be a valid concern. Who's left? Imagine Laura Loomer as press secretary and go from there. It would be an utter clown show.
In a second Trump term, any gains other than in the judiciary would come via executive order and would be easily reversible by the next president, who would almost certainly be a Democrat. And that last part is perhaps the worst consequence of all for conservatives who want to think long-term.
A Trump win in November would be a perfect political example of a Pyrrhic victory. Short-term, it would probably be great for conservatives, assuming he keeps his promises about closing the border and appointing conservative judges. Long-term? It could mean the end of Republican power-sharing for at least a decade. You thought 2020 was bad? Imagine how galvanized Democrats will be after a second Trump term, no matter how little he manages to accomplish. Nobody would be able to run and win as a Republican in 2028.
Don't get me wrong. Despite all of the above, four more years of Donald Trump would arguably still be better than four more years of Joe Biden. Arguably. But the fact that this is actually debatable is a sad testament to how low the Republican Party has sunk under Trump's leadership.
Scott Morefield is a reporter and columnist whose work has been featured on Townhall, Daily Caller, The Federalist, TheBlaze, and many other outlets.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
