Russia's Mobilized Troops in Kherson Could Crumble if Ukraine Attacks: ISW

Newly mobilized Russian soldiers covering their forces' retreat from western Kherson could face a rout at the hands of Ukrainian troops, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The U.S. think tank said on Friday that Russia has started its withdrawal from the southern region and this was likely to continue over the next few weeks, but Vladimir Putin's troops could face a struggle if Ukrainian forces choose to attack.

Ukraine's Southern Operational Command has said Moscow is transferring ammunition, military equipment and units via ferry from the Dnipro River's west bank to the east bank, while 2,000 Russian troops hold the frontline to cover their withdrawal by shelling Ukrainian positions.

The ISW said that the Russian withdrawal requires a detachment that is "well-trained, professional, and prepared to die for its compatriots" to be left to hold the line against Ukrainian attack.

But deputy chief of the Main Operational Department of the Ukrainian General Staff, Brigadier General Oleksiy Hromov, said Russia may withdraw its "most combat-capable units" from the left-bank of the river and leave mobilized soldiers to cover the retreat.

The ISW noted that if this was true, then Russian forces "would be setting conditions for a Russian withdrawal to become a rout."

"Russia's poorly trained, newly mobilized reservists are very unlikely to stand and resist a Ukrainian counterattack," it said, which could lead to a rout "on the same scale as Ukraine's rout of Russian forces in Kharkiv."

British defense officials said on Saturday that Russian forces are reinforcing crossing points over the Dnipro river near Kherson and for the first time "in decades" were using a barge bridge next to the damaged Antonovsky bridge.

Meanwhile, there are growing fears that Russian forces are set to try to blow up the dam at the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) and blame it on Kyiv, to cover their withdrawal and stop Ukrainian forces pursuing Russian forces deeper into Kherson Oblast.

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy called on the West to deter Russia from blowing up the dam holding back an enormous reservoir, which would flood swathes of southern Ukraine and create a "large-scale disaster."

However, a Russian-appointed official in Kherson, Kirill Stremousov, said that Kyiv's claims Moscow had mined the dam were "false."

It comes as U.S. secretary of state, Antony Blinken, told reporters on Friday that Washington would maintain links with Moscow but any broader diplomacy depends on Putin showing an interest "in stopping the aggression".

"We have seen no evidence of that in this moment", Blinken said, "we see Russia doubling and tripling down on its aggression."

Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry for comment.