Russian forces in occupied southern Ukraine are hurriedly reinforcing their second line of defenses as counterattacking Ukrainian troops approach the first, according to the Institute for the Study of War's latest bulletin.
Ukrainian gains in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk oblasts—specifically around the small settlements of Robotyne and Urozhaine, respectively—in recent weeks have brought Kyiv's forces close to the so-called Surovikin Line. This is a barrier of mines and fortifications developed over the past 10 months intended to stymie any Ukrainian efforts to liberate the south of the country.
The network is named after commander General Sergei Surovikin who oversaw a consolidation of Russian-controlled territory in late 2022. The general has since fallen from grace, and this week was reportedly dismissed from his post as the head of Russia's aerospace forces.
The ISW's Tuesday evening bulletin noted a significant uptick in Russian construction activity behind the first line of defense.
"Russian forces appear concerned about recent Ukrainian advances in the Donetsk- Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast," the bulletin read. The U.S.-based ISW think tank cited satellite imagery showing that "Russian forces have notably sped up the expansion of defensive fortifications" near the Zaporizhzhia settlement of Chervonoselivka, around 16 miles southwest of the current front line.
Ukrainian Colonel Petro Chernyk, meanwhile, said on Tuesday that Ukrainian forces plan to demolish Russian defensive positions in southern Ukraine and occupied Crimea, striking into the land corridor of occupied territory established by Moscow's forces.
Chernyk added that Russian forces are now reinforcing defensive networks on the Isthmus of Perekop that separates the Crimean Peninsula from mainland Ukraine, building three lines of defense there. "If they were sure they could hold the southern bridgehead, they wouldn't have done it," Chernyk said of the new fortifications.
Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) chief, Major General Kyrylo Budanov, has also said that Russian forces are preparing to defend Crimea. Budanov told the Suspilne Crimea media outlet this week that Russia has created four new groups in Crimea in preparation for a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive there.
"The construction of additional defensive fortifications in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and on the Perekop Isthmus and the creation of four unspecified 'groups' in Crimea may indicate that Russian forces are growing increasingly concerned about recent Ukrainian advances along the southern front," ISW wrote.
Ukraine's counteroffensive, now two months old, has been slow and costly. Ukrainian officials have blamed Russian mines and defenses for the lack of a decisive breakthrough. However, they have also urged patience and said that the erosion of Russia's fighting capabilities is as important as territory gained.
The ISW said that recent Ukrainian advances might be proof that Kyiv's slow approach is working. Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry by email to request comment.
"The Ukrainian advance in the Robotyne area brings Ukrainian forces closer to launching operations against second lines of defense that may be relatively weaker than the first Russian defensive line in the area," the ISW bulletin said. The think tank added that there is no evidence of fresh Russian reinforcements for the units in Zaporizhzhia that have been "defending against Ukrainian counteroffensives since the start of the counteroffensive without rotation."
ISW analysis added that Russian commanders in the area have held little to no forces in reserve. "Russian forces do not appear to have uncommitted regular units in Zaporizhzhia Oblast," the bulletin read.
"All elements of the Russian grouping in Zaporizhzhia Oblast that ISW observed in the area in the months leading up to the counteroffensive have since been engaged in defensive operations in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast or in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area."
Even those units occupying secondary lines of defense—among them, the 22nd and 45th Spetsnaz Brigades—have been involved in counterattacks and are therefore likely degraded, the ISW said. The think tank added that the composition and status of units in the secondary line of defense remain "largely unknown."
"The likely lack of Russian operational reserves, together with the limited lateral transfers to western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and observed separate uncommitted units at second lines of defense, suggests that second lines of Russian defense may be significantly less heavily defended," the ISW said, though it added it has low confidence in the assessment given the lack of available information about the units involved.
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David Brennan is Newsweek's Diplomatic Correspondent covering world politics and conflicts from London with a focus on NATO, the European ... Read more
