Russian Losses in Ukraine Approach Grim Milestone, Cost Estimates Show

The total cost of Russia's extensive equipment losses in Ukraine is nearing $55 billion, according to a new estimate, with no end in sight to the grueling war and a likely Russian summer offensive on the horizon.

Russia has lost approximately $54.88 billion in equipment in the more than 25 months of all-out war in Ukraine, according to calculations by Minfin.com.ua, a Ukrainian finance portal.

The figures, based on data published by Ukraine's military and calculations of the cost of equipment by Forbes Ukraine, are estimates of the financial blows weathered by Russia due to its equipment losses in Ukraine.

The calculations appear to account for a variety of Russian equipment and materiel losses, including armored vehicles, air defense systems, tanks and expenses incurred by firing Moscow's stockpiles of cruise missiles.

If accurate, the losses would account for nearly half of Russia's 2024 defense budget of 10.78 trillion rubles ($117 billion).

Newsweek has reached out to the Russian Defense Ministry for comment via email.

Russia has hiked its defense spending since February 2022, now allocating around a third of its spending to the military. In the wake of the invasion, many other nations, predominantly those supporting Ukraine, have upped their own defense spending and re-evaluated longstanding defense policies. European nations have broadly re-examined their defense industries, while Sweden and Finland joined NATO after decades of walking a line of neutrality.

The highest cost, per the figures, appears to be for Russia's tank fleet. As of Monday, the calculations put the cost of Russian tank losses at nearly $11 billion.

Russia's tank losses have been extensive. In the early months of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, Russia took bruising losses to its tank fleet—something Western analysts chalked up to organizational and planning failures plaguing Russia's first armored assaults. Ruptures in the chain of command, poor training and heavy initial casualties left few Russian soldiers to train the next generation of tank crews, experts have said.

Although Russian tactics have adapted, years of attritional warfare have ripped through Russia's tanks. In February, the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a U.K.-based think tank, estimated that Moscow had lost more than 3,000 tanks in two years of war— more than its entire pre-war active fleet. Estimates from Ukraine's military put Russian tank losses at more than 7,000, although this is impossible to verify.

But having placed its defense industry on a war footing, the Kremlin has been able to replenish its tank stocks while still fighting against Ukraine. Domestic Russian tank production has increased fivefold since February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin said earlier this year.

The Kremlin has also pulled old tanks from storage, and has repurposed antiquated vehicles to ferry and detonate explosives around a target, known as vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices.

Ukrainian officials have said Russia could launch a renewed offensive on Ukrainian positions as early as next month, and have emphasized the importance of military aid packages from the West to enable Ukrainian forces to fend off new attacks.

Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Kyiv's military intelligence agency, said in an interview published over the weekend with German broadcaster ARD that Russia will focus on the Donbas region of Ukraine, or the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, in the late spring and early summer.

Despite recent Russian gains westward in eastern Ukraine, Western analysts have suggested Russia may only be able to launch a "large-scale" offensive along one part of the frontline. Moscow will likely be constrained by its "own manpower and planning limitations," the Institute for the Study of War think tank, which follows the conflict, evaluated in late March.