As Russia prepares to shift some of its forces eastward in the Black Sea, the move away from Ukraine's coast may not be enough to protect the Black Sea fleet from the looming threat of Ukrainian F-16s.
Satellite imagery has suggested that Russia could be preparing for a new Black Sea naval base in a breakaway region largely recognized as being part of Georgia. Construction work and dredging is visible in images of the Ochamchire port in Abkhazia, photographs obtained by the BBC show.
The region's leader, Aslan Bzhania, told Russian state outlet Izvestia earlier this year that Russia would establish a new naval base in the separatist region. "This is all aimed at increasing the defense capability of both Russia and Abkhazia," Bzhania said.
The new facilities in Abkhazia also pose questions about the fate of Russia's Black Sea fleet, which is based in Crimea but has been forced eastward by frequent Ukrainian attacks on the annexed peninsula.
The Russian Defense Ministry has not responded to a Newsweek comment request.
News of the new base in Abkhazia has raised concerns that Moscow could widen the war in Ukraine, pulling Georgia into the conflict. Tbilisi is hoping to join the European Union, which has supported Kyiv's resistance effort against the Kremlin.
The Kremlin has already relocated some assets from Crimea to its Novorossiysk base, in Russia's Krasnodar region. A naval base at Ochamchire would put Russia's fleet much further from Ukrainian shores and less vulnerable to attack.
This reflects a "continued eastward movement by the Russian Black Sea fleet," said retired Vice Admiral Robert Murrett, professor of practice of public administration and international affairs at Syracuse University.
"Ukrainian forces have continued to mount attacks on Russian ships and port facilities in waters adjacent to Ukraine, in Crimea and beyond," he told Newsweek. Several damaging attacks on Russian Black Sea fleet bases in recent months have "provided strong incentive to Moscow to seek a safer harbor in the Abkhazia region," he argued.
Ochamchire is "as far removed from Ukraine as is possible within the confines of the Black Sea," agreed Frederik Mertens, a strategic analyst with the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies.
"That this strategic retreat has become inevitable for the Russian Black Sea fleet is both a testament to the present Ukrainian operations and a clear indication of the danger posed by the impending arrival of F-16 fighters," he told Newsweek.
Ukraine petitioned its Western allies for fourth-generation F-16 jets for months, and secured promises of the advanced aircraft in the midst of Ukraine's summer counteroffensive.
Although it is not yet clear exactly when the jets will arrive in the war-torn country, they will be a significant upgrade for Kyiv's air force and pose a "far graver threat" to Russia's Black Sea naval fleet, Mertens said.
Ukraine has been using older, Soviet-era Su-24 jets, kitted out with British-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles to shove Russia from its main Black Sea base at Sevastopol in the Crimea, Mertens added.
In mid-September, Ukraine used a Storm Shadow missile to take out a Russian submarine in Sevastopol—the first and only attack on a submarine attack is believed to have successfully conducted.
"The threat from F-16 aircraft will be far more severe, as these American aircraft have the correct interfaces to utilize Western weapons to their full potential," including Harpoon missiles, Mertens said.
In the face of Ukrainian-operated F-16s, Moscow will need to rely on its aerospace forces, known as the VKS, to protect its surface fleet, Mertens said. Russia's air defense ships fall short of the U.S. equivalents, posing a "real challenge" in the face of increased Ukrainian airpower in the Black Sea. Turkey is also still blocking access to the Black Sea and preventing more Russian warships moving into the area, Murrett noted.
Russia may even lose its grip on the central Black Sea, although this is not to say Ukraine could then control the area, Mertens assessed.
Retreating to Ochamchire is "a sign the war at sea does not go according to Putin's plan," but it is also, ultimately, a smart move from Russia, Mertens said. From this base, Moscow may be able to reload its Kalibr cruise missiles onto its vessels, which "makes solid military sense," he continued.
"The inability to use Sevastopol to perform this mission is hamstringing the Russian strategic missile campaign for now."
Could the War Spread?
Georgia's politicians have denounced the plans for a Russian naval base in Ochamchire as a "direct threat" to Tbilisi and its hopes of joining the European Union.
"Such actions represent a gross violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Georgia," Tbilisi's Foreign Ministry has said.
But the preparations for a base in Abkhazia did not jeopardize Georgia's aspirations of E.U. membership, as the bloc granted candidate status to Georgia earlier this week.
Building a permanent naval base at Ochamchire does push Russia's claim to Abkhazhia, Murrett said. "It could also increase the risk of drawing Tbilisi into Black Sea naval engagements," he added.
Experts still suggest that it is unlikely Georgia will be dragged into the grueling war, now approaching the two-year mark.
While unlikely at this point, such future engagement could potentially provide a false pretext for additional Russian military operations against Georgia. "It is far more likely Georgia will do all it can to avoid being drawn into this conflict," Mertens said.
It is still bad news for both Georgia and Western countries, Mertens said. "In the long term, this will further complicate an already very complicated situation."
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Ellie Cook is a Newsweek security and defense reporter based in London, U.K. Her work focuses largely on the Russia-Ukraine ... Read more
