The Polling Trend That Could Bring Down King Charles' Monarchy

King Charles III may face an uphill battle to win over young people as new research suggests millennials are not losing their liberal values as they age.

Newsweek has reported before on data that suggests young Britons are no longer as positive about the royal family as they have been in the past.

New analysis of political attitudes among millennials now suggests they are not becoming more conservative as they get older, bucking a longstanding trend in public opinion in both Britain and America.

Financial Times journalist John Burn-Murdoch charted changing opinions among millennials as they reached the age of 35 to determine whether they still fit the trend.

He wrote: "If millennials' liberal inclinations are merely a result of this age effect, then at age 35 they too should be around five points less conservative than the national average, and can be relied upon to gradually become more conservative.

"In fact, they're more like 15 points less conservative, and in both Britain and the US are by far the least conservative 35-year-olds in recorded history."

Burn-Murdoch suggests the change may be the product of a shared economic experience forged in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crash.

Declining Support for Monarchy Among Young People

His analysis did not relate directly to the fate of the royal family but may have worrying implications for courtiers nonetheless who cannot have missed the decline in public support for the monarchy among young people.

The change is most visible among Gen Z but is present among millennials too, suggesting that if today's 18-24 year olds hold onto to their current political values then there could be a major and even reign-defining crisis for Charles waiting down the line.

Prince Harry and Meghan Markle's Oprah Winfrey interview appeared to mark a shift in opinion among 18-24 year olds, though in reality there is a trend that goes further back than that.

In September 2015, 61 percent of British 18 to 24 year olds thought the monarchy was good for Britain compared to 5 percent who thought it was bad for the country, according to YouGov data. Meanwhile, 69 percent felt Britain should be a monarchy while 15 percent wanted an elected head of state.

By May 2018, the month of Harry and Meghan's wedding, the decline was already becoming visible, though it was less pronounced than now. Back then, 57 percent felt the monarchy was good for Britain while negative sentiment leapt 10 points to 25 percent.

By mid-September, 2022, in the aftermath of Queen Elizabeth II's death, 32 percent said the monarchy was good for Britain compared to 27 percent who felt it was bad, according to YouGov, while 47 percent wanted to keep the monarchy and 33 percent wanted an elected head of state.

These most recent figures came during a period of national mourning and were an improvement on the situation in the months after Harry and Meghan's 2021 Oprah Winfrey interview when 41 percent of Gen Z wanted an elected head of state compared to 31 percent who backed the monarchy.

How Millennials' Attitudes to Monarchy Changed

That swing, however, marks the attitudes of a new generation of young people, not the changing views of the millennials who were so positive in 2015. That group would now be aged around 25 to 31.

YouGov does not have data for that exact group but the figures for a wider section of 25 to 49 year olds shows a decline in support with 58 percent wanting to keep the monarchy and 25 percent wanting an elected head of state, a 21 point swing from +54 to +33 based on the 2015 data.

In other words, the royal family's reputation appears to have declined among the young people of the last generation while the new generation's view is more negative still.

Graham Smith, chief executive of anti-monarchy campaign group Republic, told Newsweek: "They've had bumps and trouble in the past but the queen's been there to steady it over time and things have settled back down again but she's no longer there.

"Charles and William are not the people to draw on any sycophantic deference to bring the polls around again.

"There's a general shift in attitude and then there's specific issues. The whole zeitgeist of MeToo and awareness of slavery and Empire and all these sorts of issues are completely removed from the values of monarchy.

"The monarchy despite claims of modernising just can't change and will be left adrift. The big obvious issues are Harry and Meghan and Prince Andrew."

He added: "It's come together as a perfect storm to push people away from the monarchy."

The British Monarchy and Recession

Burn-Murdoch's hypothesis that the shared economic pressure of the financial crash has baked in the liberal values of millennials may also not bode well for Charles as he leads Britain into a new recession.

The September 2022 YouGov data showed today's 18-24 year olds are divided over whether the monarchy is value for money, with 40 percent saying good and 39 percent saying bad.

Among 18-24 year olds, 31 percent are proud of the monarchy and the same number embarrassed while across all age groups 52 percent of Britons think the monarchy is less important now than in the past compared to 11 percent who think it is more important and 21 percent who see no change.

And it all unfolds as Charles prepares to hold his coronation in May at a time when British people are enduring a cost of living crisis.

Smith said British society had previously felt protective of the queen to the extent that there was little space to criticize her but do not feel the same way about the other royals.

He said: "The recession and the cost of living crisis is compounding all the other issues. The sort of comments that people make about the royals on social media or in the press, you wouldn't get away with that ten years ago about the queen.

"Now people just don't bat an eyelid. It just doesn't look like an inevitable part of British life and the Coronation has all the constitutional significance of an Elton John concert so I think that's going to compound it quite a lot."

It is impossible to know whether Gen Z will follow the path of millennials and retain their liberal values in later life or snap back to a more conservative view.

What makes matters worse, Charles may find that it is not enough to carry public opinion by a fine margin since part of what the monarchy offers Britain is a head of state free from the divisive world of politics who can unite the country across political, economic and social divides in uplifting moments from jubilees to royal weddings and babies.

Yet if there is no improvement in attitudes by the time today's 18-24 year olds become tomorrow's 35 year olds or even 45 year olds, then Charles may lose the ability to play that unifying role.

King Charles III's Biggest Challenges

Charles begins his reign with serious questions being asked of the institution on major issues like race and colonialism and in the aftermath of the spectacular fall from grace of Prince Andrew, arising from his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein.

Harry and Meghan also famously accused an unnamed royal family member of racism. However, the problems did not stop there.

Prince William—who put his head above the parapet to say the royals were "not a racist family" after Oprah—has been accused of making racially insensitive comments, including linking the human population in Africa to environmental challenges and when suggesting it was "very alien" to see war in Europe.

William and Kate endured a rocky tour of the Caribbean in March 2022 against the backdrop of protests calling for a royal apology for colonialism and slavery.

Lady Susan Hussey, Queen Elizabeth II's lady-in-waiting, recently quit the palace after repeatedly asking a Black charity boss where she was from, despite having already been told she was British.

And Prince Harry's memoir, Spare, is days away and expected to launch a fresh assault on the reputation of the monarchy.

There is one thing on Charles' side, however, which is that the views of the older generations are so positive of monarchy that it will likely be years before the overall swing in U.K. public opinion becomes so significant that abolishing the monarchy becomes in any way plausible.