Since the war in Iraq began, more than 2 million Iraqis have become refugees in their own country, and some 2 million have dispersed abroad. This massive exodus has already become a huge humanitarian disaster, and the worst may be yet to come. The crisis is engulfing Iraq's neighbors, and it could easily fuel greater instability in an area already notoriously unstable.
The United States precipitated the chaos by invading Iraq in the first place. Yet Washington has not met its moral responsibility to aid the refugees. That said, the problem far exceeds Washington's abilities. Indeed, the crisis has further internationalized the Iraq dilemma; almost every country in the Middle East shelters fleeing Iraqis, with Syria and Jordan bearing the heaviest load. No one nation can deal with the problem on its own.
Because addressing the cause of the refugee crisis—the unraveling of Iraq—will be an intensely political job, it will take a world-class political figure to lead it: U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. Only Ban, with the United Nations' backing, has a chance of bringing together the many nations caught up in the problem and providing a comprehensive solution.
The basic elements of the crisis are plain to see. One in seven Iraqis has been displaced since the war began, and sectarian strife is generating 2,000 more refugees daily. As a result, once heterogeneous Iraqi towns and neighborhoods are being ethnically cleansed, and the country has lost much of its intellectual elite and professional work force. Outside Iraq, the torrent is straining the services and treasuries of neighboring governments, testing the good will of their citizens, and in certain places—especially Jordan and Lebanon—threatening to sow political instability. No one knows how long it will be before the refugees can safely return home. And some countries are starting to slam the door in their faces.
The U.S. response has been woefully inadequate. Washington long delayed even acknowledging the refugee problem, and since it has, the U.S. government has granted only a pitiful number of asylum visas—less than 800 total since 2003. Financial assistance to host countries has been minimal.
Even if the United States made more of an effort (and it should), however, it couldn't do much alone. Yet no other country is prepared to take the lead. Reducing the refugee outflow will require progress on the prickliest issue facing Iraq: reducing its violent sectarian divisions. That means winning the cooperation of Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish leaders—an immense accomplishment beyond the United States' capabilities.
Help from Iraq's neighbors is essential. Every one of them has a stake in preventing Iraq's deterioration. Reversing the refugee outflow would benefit all of Iraq's neighbors, and could help even the most hostile among them, such as Iran and Saudi Arabia, find common ground.
Of course, Middle Eastern states will also never manage to address the problem on their own. That's where the United Nations and Ban must come in. Only they gather a broad coalition of international support—from Russia, China, and Europe, among others—and spearhead a response to the entirety of the problem: the short-term needs of the refugees; those of Iraq's beleaguered neighbors, and the violence in Iraq that is creating new refugees every day. The ultimate goal must be to return home most of the refugees, which is vital to keeping Iraq alive.
How should Ban go about it? He should begin by constructively engaging Iraqi community leaders, the numerous concerned governments and relief agencies in developing a systemic political and humanitarian plan to address the refugee exodus. Inevitably, this will involve intensive regional diplomacy, the convening of Iraqi parties, and major international conferences.
Tackling the refugee crisis would allow Ban not just to alleviate a humanitarian disaster but also to assist in the calming of Iraq and the reduction of tensions throughout the Middle East. The moment is ripe for him to put an authoritative personal stamp on his high office, and to thrust the United Nations once more into the forefront of resolving profound international problems. It is a daunting task, no doubt, and prospects for success are hardly great. But if Ban does not try, Iraq's refugee crisis is likely to metastasize—and the United Nations will have missed an opportunity to demonstrate its critical importance.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
