Russia May Annex Another European Country

Russian President Vladimir Putin may announce the annexation of the pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said.

While the Washington, D.C., think tank said such a possibility was unlikely in the short term, its report on Thursday describes a continuing hybrid operation by Moscow to destabilize the former Soviet state, which borders Ukraine. Newsweek has contacted the foreign ministries of Russia and Moldova for comment.

Internationally recognized as part of Moldova, whose European Union aspirations have angered the Kremlin, Transnistria is located between the Dniester River and the Moldovan-Ukrainian border. Moldova has no control over the Russian-speaking region that claimed independence after the collapse of the USSR, sparking an intervention by Moscow.

Russian troops remain in the territory. While Transnistria's independence is not recognized by Moscow or the international community, the territory where Russian troops are based remains a useful tool for the Kremlin to stop Moldova from seeking greater ties with the EU and NATO.

The ISW said that the Transnistrian Congress of Deputies held a rare meeting in their capital Tiraspol on Wednesday. During it, they blamed Chisinau for destroying the region's economy and violating the freedoms of population of around half a million.

Transnistrian opposition activist Ghenadie Ciorba said on Wednesday that deputies will ask on February 28 for Moscow to annex Transnistria, a day before Putin addresses the Russian Federal Assembly, Moldovan outlet Deschide reported.

The Washington, D.C.-based think tank ISW said it could see Putin "in the most dangerous course of action, declare Russia's annexation of Transnistria during his planned address... although that appears unlikely."

The Russian president "will more likely welcome whatever action the Transnistrian Congress of Deputies takes and offer observations on the situation," the ISW said on X (formerly Twitter).

The deputies will likely either initiate a new referendum seeking Moscow's annexation, or demand action on ballots held in 2006 unrecognized internationally, one of which backed joining Russia, the ISW said. Putin will likely welcome whatever actions the congress takes, "although he may stop short of acting on a request for immediate annexation," it added.

The ISW said there were no clear indications of Russian military preparations to intervene in Transnistria or Moldova, which would be challenging anyway given that they are landlocked and accessible only through Romanian or Ukrainian territory.

In a paper published on Tuesday, Dionis Cenusa, a risk analyst with the Lithuania-based Eastern Europe Studies Center, said the priority of Moldova and its Western partners was to stop Russian military aggression spreading outside Ukraine.

Cenusa said that, if the Transnistrian region were annexed by Russia, Ukraine would be able to act preemptively, including using its military capabilities, to secure its western borders. This made such a scenario unlikely. "The regime tries to survive and it has no other option than to increase the escalation," Cenusa told Newsweek.

"Recognition and annexation depends on Russian calculation. That is linked to the broader picture of its tactical gains regarding Ukraine and its strategic interests in the Transnistrian region, especially if the events turns unfavorably for its long-standing influence," over the region, as well as all of Moldova.

The Kremlin considers as unacceptable Moldova's move to join the EU and closer alignment with NATO. Putin's speech in November 2023 about the "Russian world" offered his vision of Russian speakers and those living in post-Soviet states such as Moldova as part of Moscow's rightful historical territory.

The ISW noted that the Kremlin uses Transnistria as a proxy to derail Moldova's EU accession and may use it as leverage to execute hybrid war operations against Moldova, Ukraine, and NATO to destabilize the alliance.