What Minuteman Missile Launch Failure Means for US Nuclear Deterrence

Russian commentators crowed at the termination of an LGM-30G Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) over the Pacific Ocean, but the failure isn't an indictment of U.S. nuclear weapons capabilities, one expert told Newsweek.

An escalation in nuclear rhetoric from Moscow since the start of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine may explain the mockery from Russian media following the announcement by the U.S. Air Force Global Strike Command (AFGSC) that an "anomaly" had forced the unarmed ICBM to be "safely terminated" off the coast of California after its launch from the Vandenberg Space Force Base on November 2.

But Matt Korda, a senior research fellow from the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), said test launches of Russian missiles, such as the Sarmat, "fail more frequently" than in the United States.

First deployed in 1970, the Minuteman has a range of over 6,000 miles and can travel at a speed of about 15,000 miles per hour. There are about four tests a year of the nuclear-capable Minuteman ICBM, of which there are 400 located at U.S. Air Force bases in Wyoming, Montana and North Dakota, forming a key part of the U.S. military's arsenal, and making up one leg of the U.S. nuclear deterrent triad.

Military expert Alexei Leonkov told Russian news agency RIA Novosti that the launch showed the U.S. was relying on "old missiles that have already exceeded their planned service life," while the Telegram channel Russian Engineer said another failure "could call into question" the missile's capability.

"The failure of a test is somewhat out of the ordinary for a Minuteman," Korda told Newsweek, "but I wouldn't say that necessarily has a bearing on the program as a whole or the viability of the ICBM force."

Although Russian commentators have made much of the five-decade period the missile has been deployed, it has gone through several life-extension programs and age may not reflect its capability.

There are plans to replace the Minuteman III ICBM with the LGM-35A Sentinel and the AFGSC has said that "until full capability is achieved in the mid-2030s, the Air Force is committed to ensuring Minuteman III remains a viable deterrent."

"They are working on plans to replace the Minuteman on a one-to-one basis," with the Sentinel, said Korda, meaning there would be no increase or decrease in the number of missiles deployed.

"That was supposed be coming online in 2030 or so. I think they're increasingly getting a little bit nervous about whether there's going to be some period of time where The Minuteman starts being retired before the Sentinel missiles can come online."

The U.S. Air Force said that "careful analysis is needed to identify the cause" of last week's launch failure, with one social media user, M51.4ever, who posts about strategic systems, describing how there was an "uncontrolled descent of the 1st stage after jettison." M51.4ever previously told Newsweek that something new might have been tried, like "a non-standard trajectory or new equipment," but that whatever the reason, most nuclear warheads are mounted on Trident II D5 SLBM, which are "also very reliable, so U.S. deterrence is safe."

When contacted by Newsweek, AFGSC said in a statement: "the Launch Analysis Group investigation in ongoing, and no further details are available at this time."

In any case, Russia has been hit by its own test launch problems, with independent Russian news outlet Sirena reporting last week that at least six missile tests have been unsuccessful since June 30.

These have reportedly involved Russia's next-generation "Poseidon" nuclear-capable torpedo, the Sarmat, its Yars intercontinental ballistic missile, and the Bulava, an intercontinental-range, submarine-launched ballistic missile.

"Regular test failures do happen in Russia a little more frequently than we've seen in the United States," said Korda, who is also an associate researcher for the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's (SIPRI) weapons of mass destruction program.

He said that the Sarmat is a system that "as far as we know is not yet deployed but they are about to deploy it and it has not had any kind of success with regards to its development, its flight test record and it has been plagued by difficulties."

Vladimir Putin said in June that the RS-28 Sarmat ICBM, code-named "Satan 2" by NATO, which is said to be capable of carrying 10 or more nuclear warheads, would soon be deployed for combat duty.

"The unusual thing is that they're going ahead with their deployment," Korda said. "There is some kind of pressure at play with this particular system.

"Maybe some of their older missiles need to be taken out of the ground quickly because they're reaching the end of their service lives," he said, "or maybe there's pressure coming down from Putin himself."

Newsweek contacted the Russian defense ministry and Air Force Global Strike Command by email for comment.

Update 11/9/23, 11:52 a.m. ET: This story was updated with a statement from AFGSC.