Michelle Obama is the most likely candidate to replace Joe Biden as the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee should the incumbent step down before the election according to a leading bookmaker, despite the former first lady not having launched a White House bid.
Betting company Betfair is currently offering odds of 4/9, or 69 percent, on Biden being the Democratic nominee in November. The 81-year-old president has already won Democratic primaries in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada and is only being challenged by fringe figures from within his own party.
However, concerns about Biden's health, strengthened by a series of recent gaffs, have triggered speculation over whether he could end up stepping down from the contest, and if so, who would be the favorites to replace him.
Betfair has Obama as the second most favored 2024 Democratic presidential nominee with odds of 8/1, or 11 percent, making her the highest performing alternative to Biden. She is followed by California Governor Gavin Newsom on 12/1 (7.7 percent), Vice-President Kamala Harris with 15/1 (6.3 percent), Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer on 74/1 (1.3 percent), Senator Elizabeth Warren on 79/1 (1.3 percent) and Hillary Clinton with 94/1 (1.1 percent).
Speaking to Newsweek Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom acknowledged concern about Biden's mental aptitude was leading some punters to put their money on other potential candidates.
He said: "Four years ago at the start of the primary season, Joe Biden wasn't even the favorite for the Democratic nomination, let alone the presidency.
"This time around, things look a lot clearer for the incumbent and he is as short as 4/9 to be the nominee. However, there have been a number of reports and political analysts questioning the competency of the president when it comes to running for another four years, and punters have been backing a number of potential candidates should he step down from running.
"One of the biggest movers in that market has been Michelle Obama, who is now second favorite at 8/1 having started 2024 at 22/1. Gavin Newsom was as short as 5/1 in the race to be on the presidential ballot at one point, but his odds have now drifted to 12/1."
Newsweek has reached out to the office of Barack and Michelle Obama and a spokesperson for Michelle Obama for comment by email. A representative of Joe Biden's re-election campaign has also been contacted by email.
The Betfair odds, listing Obama as the second most likely Democratic presidential nominee after Biden, were echoed by a number of other bookmakers.
According to the Odds Checker website Paddy Power is offering odds of 1/3 on Biden being the Democratic candidate in November, followed by Michelle Obama on 13/2 and Newsom on 9/1. Similarly William Hill has odds of 2/5 on Biden being the candidate in November, then Obama on 4/1 and Newsom on 7/1. The odds offered by BetVictor are 4/11 for Biden, 4/1 on Obama and 8/1 for Newsom.
Obama has not given any indication she plans to announce a bid for the Democratic presidential nomination this year, with political consultant David Axelrod telling CNN: "I have as much chance of dancing in the Bolshoi Ballet next year."
In January, during an appearance on Jay Shetty's On Purpose podcast, Obama admitted she is "terrified about what could possibly happen" at the next election.
Earlier this month Special Counsel Robert Hur described Biden as an "elderly man with a poor memory" in his report into accusations the Democrat had mishandled classified documents after leaving the White House as vice-president. Biden strongly rejected this characterization telling a press conference "my memory's fine."
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
James Bickerton is a Newsweek U.S. News reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is covering U.S. politics and world ... Read more
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