Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib offered a warning for Israel on Friday as his country and its people make preparations as fears mount that Israel's conflict with Hamas could become regional.
On October 7, Hamas, which the U.S. designates as a terrorist organization, led the deadliest Palestinian militant attack on Israel in history. Israel subsequently launched its heaviest-ever airstrikes on Gaza. As of Friday, more than 1,400 people had been killed in Israel, the Associated Press reported. Gaza's health ministry, which is run by Hamas, said the death toll in Gaza has surpassed 4,100, according to AP.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said his country is "at war" and has cut off supplies of food, fuel, electricity and medicine into Gaza. Although Israel has said that it will allow some aid into Gaza through Egypt, the shipments have reportedly been delayed. Israel has called up 360,000 army reservists as it prepares for a possible ground offensive into the densely populated territory, which is estimated to be home to about 2.3 million people.
Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group that the U.S. designates as a terrorist organization, has exchanged near daily fire across the border with Israel since the Hamas attack. While Lebanese leaders say they do not want to be drawn into war, Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran, holds significant political power and support in the country.
"We do not want war...but it is uncontrollable," Bou Habib told CNN on Friday. Hezbollah "do[es] not want a war, but, I mean, you can't control it. It all depends, again, on what happens in Gaza, on the invasion of Israel to Gaza.
"The damage would be worse for them [Israel] as much as for us," he warned, urging Israel to declare a ceasefire in Gaza. He added that, "their country is not going to be safe. All of these resistance forces have a lot of weapons and they're going to use them."
He added that regional governments would not have much say if the bombardment of Gaza persists. He suggested that various groups would take matters into their own hands.
Meanwhile, local media in Lebanon reported that Prime Minister Najib Mikati held a meeting with Cabinet members on Thursday to prepare an emergency plan if the war spreads to their country. The plan would reportedly divide the country into three regions, in conjunction with the United Nations. The southern region would be designated as vulnerable to attack, while regions to the north and northeast would be designated as areas where internal refugees could flee in hopes of finding safety.
Newsweek reached out to the Lebanese Prime Minister's Office for comment.
Mohammad El-Hout, chairman of Middle East Airlines, Lebanon's national carrier, announced Friday that his airline was reducing flights and cutting more than half of its operations as of next week.
"Insurance companies began to worry two or three days after," El-Hout said in a televised interview, Agence France-Presse reported.
That decision comes as some Lebanese have already begun to flee the country amid fears that the war will spread. The governments of the U.S., U.K., France, Australia, Canada and Belgium have urged their citizens to leave the country.
"The Department of State urges U.S. citizens in Lebanon to make plans to depart as soon as possible while commercial options are still available. We recommend that U.S. citizens who choose not to depart prepare contingency plans for emergency situations," multiple emails viewed by Newsweek from the U.S. Embassy to U.S. citizens in Lebanon have said over the past few days.
"The mood in Lebanon—there's a lot of anxiety and stress. People are extremely worried the war might escalate," Michella Sfeir, a 33-year-old Lebanese business owner, told Newsweek. She said many people already chose to leave the country last week.
"They packed their stuff and they left," she said. "This week, way more people left after all the embassies sent the warnings to evacuate."
Lebanon officially views Israel as an enemy state and many Lebanese empathize with Palestinians. However, the country continues to suffer from a crippling economic crisis, with more than half of the country living under the poverty line, according to the World Bank. As a result, most Lebanese—and the government—are less than eager to see their country enter what many believe would be a devastating war.
In 2006, Hezbollah and Israel fought a 34-day war that is estimated to have left some 165 Israelis and more than 1,100 Lebanese dead. Already, more than 20 people, including several civilians and journalists, have died in Lebanon due to cross-border clashes with Israel since October 7.
"The mutual deterrence established after the destructive 2006 war is holding, if by a thread," Firas Maksad, a senior fellow and director of strategic outreach at the Middle East Institute, told Newsweek on Friday. "A major inflection point in the war will be once Israel commence a major ground invasion against Hamas in Gaza. Hezbollah and Iranian calculus may change then, stepping up attacks to distract Israel and alleviate Hamas.
"At present, however, barring a major miscalculation, neither Israel nor Hezbollah are interested in all-out war."
The U.S. State Department told Newsweek last week that Hezbollah and other groups should not get involved in the conflict.
"Any decision by Hezbollah or other actors to drag Lebanon into this conflict would have terrible consequences for the Lebanese people. They deserve better," a spokesperson said.
Maksad said that deterrence and diplomacy will be key in precluding a region-wide conflict. He said that the Biden administration's decision to send aircraft carriers to the Mediterranean should be coupled with clearly communicating to Iran, Hezbollah's sponsor, what the redlines are, and also what punishing response crossing them would bring about.
For Lebanese citizens, they feel caught in limbo, unsure of what to expect next.
"Let's hope for the best, going day-by-day for now," Sfeir said. "Praying for peace and waiting, just waiting."
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Jason Lemon is a Weekend Editor at Newsweek based in Brooklyn, New York. Prior to taking on the editor role, Jason's reporting focused on ... Read more
